Conflict and Intergroup Trade: Evidence from the 2014 Russia-Ukraine Crisis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Korovkin, Vasily; Makarin, Alexey
• 署名单位: Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Charles University Prague; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20191701
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 34-70
• 关键词: FOREIGN INTERVENTION; institutions; networks; trust

摘要

Does armed conflict reduce trade, even in noncombat areas, through the destruction of intergroup social capital? We analyze Ukrainian trade transactions before and after the 2014 Russia-Ukraine con-flict. In a difference-in-differences framework, we find that Ukrainian firms from districts with fewer ethnic Russians experienced a deeper decline in trade with Russia. This decline is economically signifi-cant, persistent, and can be explained by erosion of intergroup trust. Affected Ukrainian firms suffered a decrease in performance and diverted trade to other countries. Our results suggest that, through social effects, conflict can be economically damaging even away from combat areas. (JEL D74, F14, F51, J15, P31, P33, Z13)