-
作者：Arcidiacono, Peter; Hotz, V. Joseph; Maurel, Arnaud; Romano, Teresa
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Emory University
摘要：Using data from Duke University undergraduates, we make three main contributions to the literature. First, we show that data on earnings beliefs and probabilities of choosing particular occupations are highly informative of future earnings and occupations. Second, we show how beliefs data can be used to recover ex ante treatment effects and their relationship with individual choices. We find large differences in expected earnings across occupations and provide evidence of sorting on expected g...
-
作者：Kaplan, Greg; Mitman, Kurt; Violante, Giovanni L.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stockholm University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Princeton University
摘要：We build a model of the US economy with multiple aggregate shocks that generate fluctuations in equilibrium house prices. Through counterfactual experiments, we study the housing boom-bust around the Great Recession, with three main results. First, the main driver of movements in house prices and rents was a shift in beliefs, not a change in credit conditions. Second, the boom-bust in house prices explains half of the corresponding swings in nondurable expenditures through a wealth effect. Thi...
-
作者：Kozlowski, Julian; Veldkamp, Laura; Venkateswaran, Venky
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The Great Recession was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit, employment, and output. While narratives about its causes abound, the persistence of gross domestic product below precrisis trends remains puzzling. We propose a simple persistence mechanism that can be quantified and combined with existing models. Our key premise is that agents do not know the true distribution of shocks but use data to estimate it nonparametrically. Then, transitory events, especially extreme ones, ...
-
作者：Almas, Ingvild; Cappelen, Alexander W.; Tungodden, Bertil
作者单位：Stockholm University; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：There are striking differences in inequality and redistribution between the United States and Scandinavia. To study whether there are corresponding differences in social preferences, we conducted a large-scale international social preference experiment where Americans and Norwegians make distributive choices in identical environments. Combining the infrastructure of an international online labor market and that of a leading international data collection agency, we show that Americans and Norwe...
-
作者：Hatfield, John William; Kominers, Scott Duke; Lowery, Richard; Barry, Jordan M.
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of San Diego
摘要：Many markets are syndicated, including those for initial public offerings, club deal leveraged buyouts, and debt issuances; in such markets, each winning bidder invites competitors to join a syndicate to complete production. We show that in syndicated markets, collusion may become easier as market concentration falls and market entry may facilitate collusion. In particular, firms can sustain collusion by refusing to syndicate with any firm that undercuts the collusive price, thereby raising th...
-
作者：Cooper, Zack; Scott Morton, Fiona; Shekita, Nathan
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In the United States, hospitals and physicians independently negotiate contracts with insurers. Therefore, a privately insured individual can be treated at an in-network hospital's emergency department but receive a large unexpected bill from an out-of-network emergency physician working at that facility. Because patients do not choose their emergency physician, emergency physicians can remain out of network and charge high prices without losing patient volume. We illustrate that this strong o...
-
作者：Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Wieland, Johannes
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：We revisit an old question: does industry labor reallocation affect the business cycle? Our empirical methodology exploits variation in a local labor market's exposure to industry reallocation on the basis of the area's initial industry composition and national industry employment trends for identification. Applied to confidential employment data over 1980-2014, we find sharp evidence of reallocation contributing to higher local area unemployment if it occurs during a national recession but li...
-
作者：Monras, Joan
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：How does the US labor market absorb low-skilled immigration? In the short run, high-immigration locations see their low-skilled labor force increase, native low-skilled wages decrease, and the relative price of rentals increase. Internal relocation dissipates this shock spatially. In the long run, the only lasting consequences are (a) worse labor market conditions for low-skilled natives who entered the labor force in high-immigration years, and (b) lower housing prices in high-immigrant locat...
-
作者：Harstad, Bard
作者单位：University of Oslo
摘要：Policy makers have time-inconsistent preferences if they fear losing power or are endowed with hyperbolic discount factors. Politicians may thus seek to influence future policy choices, for example, by investing in green technologies that motivate later politicians to act sustainably. I show that optimal investment subsidies are larger for technologies that are strategic complements to future investments, that are further upstream in the supply chain, or that are characterized by longer maturi...
-
作者：Mathevet, Laurent; Perego, Jacopo; Taneva, Ina
作者单位：New York University; Columbia University; University of Edinburgh
摘要：Information provision in games influences behavior by affecting agents' beliefs about the state as well as their higher-order beliefs. We first characterize the extent to which a designer can manipulate agents' beliefs by disclosing information. We then describe the structure of optimal belief distributions, including a concave-envelope representation that subsumes the single-agent result of Kamenica and Gentzkow. This result holds under various solution concepts and outcome selection rules. F...
