The Housing Boom and Bust: Model Meets Evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kaplan, Greg; Mitman, Kurt; Violante, Giovanni L.
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stockholm University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Princeton University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/708816
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 3285-3345
• 关键词: price; consumption; WEALTH; debt; INEQUALITY; DYNAMICS

摘要

We build a model of the US economy with multiple aggregate shocks that generate fluctuations in equilibrium house prices. Through counterfactual experiments, we study the housing boom-bust around the Great Recession, with three main results. First, the main driver of movements in house prices and rents was a shift in beliefs, not a change in credit conditions. Second, the boom-bust in house prices explains half of the corresponding swings in nondurable expenditures through a wealth effect. Third, a large-scale debt forgiveness program would have done little to temper the collapse of house prices and expenditures but would have dramatically reduced foreclosures and induced a small, but persistent, increase in consumption during the recovery.