Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel; Wieland, Johannes
• 署名单位: Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/705717
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 2245-2287
• 关键词: instrumental variables; sectoral shifts; cyclical unemployment; Wage stickiness; inference; RIGIDITY; search

摘要

We revisit an old question: does industry labor reallocation affect the business cycle? Our empirical methodology exploits variation in a local labor market's exposure to industry reallocation on the basis of the area's initial industry composition and national industry employment trends for identification. Applied to confidential employment data over 1980-2014, we find sharp evidence of reallocation contributing to higher local area unemployment if it occurs during a national recession but little difference in outcomes during an expansion. A multiarea, multisector search-and-matching model with imperfect mobility across industries and downward nominal wage rigidity can reproduce these cross-sectional patterns.