Ex Ante Returns and Occupational Choice

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Arcidiacono, Peter; Hotz, V. Joseph; Maurel, Arnaud; Romano, Teresa
• 署名单位: Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Emory University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/710559
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 4475-4522
• 关键词: college major; subjective probabilities; expectations; Heterogeneity; distributions; uncertainty; decisions; education; field

摘要

Using data from Duke University undergraduates, we make three main contributions to the literature. First, we show that data on earnings beliefs and probabilities of choosing particular occupations are highly informative of future earnings and occupations. Second, we show how beliefs data can be used to recover ex ante treatment effects and their relationship with individual choices. We find large differences in expected earnings across occupations and provide evidence of sorting on expected gains. Finally, nonpecuniary factors play an important role, with a sizable share of individuals willing to give up substantial amounts of earnings by not choosing their highest-paying occupation.