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作者：Liu, Zheng; Spiegel, Mark M.; Zhang, Jingyi
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：We document empirical evidence that surges in capital inflows (outflows) raise (reduce) income inequality. We study the mechanism through which changes in capital flows and capital account policies can influence income distributions in a small open economy model. Our model features heterogeneous agents and financial frictions, with banks intermediating between household savings and entrepreneur investment. Inflow surges disproportionately raise entrepreneur income, exacerbating inequality, whi...
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作者：Ernst, Anne; Hinterlang, Natascha; Mahle, Alexander; Staehler, Nikolai
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：In a dynamic, three-region environmental multi-sector general equilibrium model, we find that carbon pricing generates a long-lasting downturn as production costs rise. Dirty production is shifted towards countries with laxer climate policies, known as carbon leakage. A border adjustment tax mitigates but does not prevent carbon leakage. Its impact on emissions is limited, and it mainly protects dirty domestic production sectors with tradeable goods (in relative terms). Benefits from lower emi...
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作者：Agarwal, Natasha; Chan, Jackie M. L.; Lodefalk, Magnus; Tang, Aili; Tano, Sofia; Wang, Zheng
作者单位：Aarhus University; Orebro University; De Montfort University; University of Nottingham
摘要：Information frictions make foreign trade risky. In particular, the risk of buyer default deters firms from selling abroad. To address this issue, many countries offer export credit guarantees to provide insurance to exporters. In this paper, we investigate the causal effects of guarantees by exploiting a quasi-natural experiment in Sweden and rich register data on guarantees, firms and trade. Estimates from a fuzzy regression discontinuity design show large positive effects on the probability ...
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作者：Artuc, Erhan; Bastos, Paulo; Rijkers, Bob
作者单位：The World Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We examine the effects of robotization on North-South trade patterns, wages and welfare. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares and instrumental-variable regressions exploiting variation in exposure to robots across countries and sectors. Both reveal that greater robot intensity in own production leads to: (i) a rise in imports sourced from less developed countries in the same industry; and (ii) an even stronger increase in exports to those countries. To explain these findings we d...
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作者：Soderlund, Bengt
作者单位：Lund University
摘要：The strong negative relationship between geographical distance and trade is not well under-stood. I use the liberalization of the Soviet airspace to estimate the causal impact of business travel cost on trade. The liberalization radically reduced travel time between Europe and East Asia and was followed by a significant increase in trade. I find that the cost of business travel can account for a large share of the trade frictions that cause trade to sharply decline with dis-tance. A plausible ...
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作者：Yu, Chan
作者单位：University of International Business & Economics
摘要：Research has shown a limited labor mobility response to trade shocks. However, existing stud-ies of aggregate mobility may miss important heterogeneity. This paper proposes a mechanism through which local labor markets adjust to trade shocks, namely immigrant mobility. I find a relative decline in the immigrant population in areas more exposed to import growth from China. An interquartile increase in Chinese import exposure decreases the immigrant popula-tion by 5.4% but has little effect on t...
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作者：Pham, Hoang
摘要：In a heterogeneous-firm model with oligopsonistic local labor markets, this paper shows that opening up to trade can affect distortion in such markets. The distortion arises because firms are large and able to exercise market power over their local workers. Using a panel dataset of Chinese manufacturing firms from 1998 to 2007, I measure firm-level labor market distortion and examine their evolution following China's trade policy reform in 2001. I find that labor market distortion is pervasive...
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作者：Bergin, Paul R.; Corsetti, Giancarlo
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; European University Institute
摘要：In the wake of Brexit and Trump trade war, central banks face the need to reconsider the role of monetary policy in managing the inflationary-recessionary effects of hikes in tariffs. Using a New Keynesian model enriched with global value chains and firm dynamics, we show that the optimal monetary response is expansionary. It supports activity and producer prices at the expense of aggravating short-run headline inflation-contrary to the prescription of the standard Taylor rule. This holds all ...
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作者：Claeys, Gregory; Papioti, Chara; Tryphonides, Andreas
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; University of Cyprus
摘要：Using a structural approach, we combine bidding data from open market operations with macroeconomic information to recover the latent distribution of liquidity risk across financial institutions in Chile and how it is affected by policy. We find that unanticipated shocks to foreign reserve accumulation and interest rates have significant effects on aggregate beliefs about a liquidity shock in the near future. We demonstrate that accounting for market power is important for measuring the streng...
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作者：Gong, Robin Kaiji
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：This study examines how innovation by U.S. multinational firms affects the productivity of domestic Chinese firms in the same counties as the U.S. subsidiaries. After manually matching U.S. multinational firms with their manufacturing subsidiaries in China, I use citation-weighted patent stock to measure U.S.-produced external knowledge in Chinese counties and employ an instrumental variable strategy based on U.S. R & D tax credit policies to address potential endogeneity concerns. Findings su...
