Mitigating information frictions in trade: Evidence from export credit guarantees

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Agarwal, Natasha; Chan, Jackie M. L.; Lodefalk, Magnus; Tang, Aili; Tano, Sofia; Wang, Zheng
• 署名单位: Aarhus University; Orebro University; De Montfort University; University of Nottingham
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103831
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: information frictions; Buyer default; liquidity constraints; Export credit guarantees; TRADE; firm performance

摘要

Information frictions make foreign trade risky. In particular, the risk of buyer default deters firms from selling abroad. To address this issue, many countries offer export credit guarantees to provide insurance to exporters. In this paper, we investigate the causal effects of guarantees by exploiting a quasi-natural experiment in Sweden and rich register data on guarantees, firms and trade. Estimates from a fuzzy regression discontinuity design show large positive effects on the probability of exporting and the value of exports to the destination for which the guarantees are issued. These results are robust to an alternative approach using a difference-in-differences matching estimator. Further findings suggest that guarantees impact firms heterogeneously and play an important role in resolving buyer default risk and easing liquidity constraints. Larger impacts are observed in non-OECD countries, on smaller, liquidity constrained exporters and for firms selling products that face a relatively high cost of buyer default.