Robots, tasks, and trade

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Artuc, Erhan; Bastos, Paulo; Rijkers, Bob
• 署名单位: The World Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103828
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: robots; tasks; jobs; wages; TRADE; inputs; Global value chains; gains from trade

摘要

We examine the effects of robotization on North-South trade patterns, wages and welfare. The empirical analysis uses ordinary least squares and instrumental-variable regressions exploiting variation in exposure to robots across countries and sectors. Both reveal that greater robot intensity in own production leads to: (i) a rise in imports sourced from less developed countries in the same industry; and (ii) an even stronger increase in exports to those countries. To explain these findings we develop a stylized Ricardian model featuring two-stage production and trade in intermediate and final goods in which robots can take over some tasks previously performed by humans in a subset of industries. An increase in robot adoption in the North impacts trade in final and intermediate goods with the South, as well as wages and welfare.