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作者：Chu, Angus C.; Peretto, Pietro; Xu, Rongxin
作者单位：University of Macau; Duke University
摘要：This study develops an open -economy Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous takeoff to explore the effects of exports on the transition of an economy from stagnation to innovation -driven growth. We find that a higher export demand raises the level of employment, which causes a larger market size and an earlier takeoff along with a higher transitional growth rate but has no effect on long -run economic growth. These theoretical results are consistent with empirical evidence that we documen...
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作者：Gorrin, Jesus; Morales-Arilla, Jose; Ricca, Bernardo
作者单位：University of Warwick; Princeton University; Insper
摘要：This paper finds that law enforcement interventions during the Mexican Drug War (MDW) hindered local export growth. We leverage exogenous variation in drug enforcement from the close election of mayors affiliated with the national ruling party during the MDW. Firms servicing the same markets but exogenously exposed to drug enforcement experienced lower export growth. The MDW decreased capital investments, eroding productivity gains in capital-intensive activities.& COPY; 2023 Elsevier B.V. All...
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作者：Freylejer, Leandro; Orr, Scott
作者单位：University of Northern British Columbia; University of British Columbia
摘要：The United States passed a series of precursor control laws between 2004 and 2006 which aimed to decrease illicit methamphetamine production by limiting access to key inputs. We provide ev-idence that this caused suppliers to substitute towards Mexican-produced methamphetamine. Using a difference-in-differences identification strategy, we show that the treatment effect of pre-cursor controls on lab seizures was largest in the middle of the United States. This is consistent with substitution to...
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作者：Steinberg, Joseph B.
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：I develop a dynamic theory of exporting that synthesizes two approaches: static models, in which exporting costs depend on the number of foreign customers a firm serves in the present; and dynamic models, in which these costs depend on whether a firm exported in the past. The theory simultaneously accounts for two sets of established empirical findings: (i) larger markets attract exports from more firms and these exports are more concentrated; and (ii) new exporters are generally smaller and m...
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作者：Niepmann, Friederike
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper develops a model of banking across borders where banks differ in their efficiencies. Operating abroad allows the most efficient banks that have a large enough scale to overcome the associated fixed costs to increase their leverage, size and profits even more. Banking globalization increases welfare because these banks, by maximizing the return on loans and minimizing funding costs, improve the allocation of capital by channeling capital across borders. At the same time, global banki...
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作者：Mitchener, Kris James; Pina, Goncalo
作者单位：Santa Clara University; heSam Universite; ESCP Business School
摘要：We estimate the impact of countercyclical interest rates on macroeconomic outcomes in open economies. To identify countercyclical interest rates, we construct a new database of short-term interest rates, principal exports, and commodity prices for 40 economies from 1870-1913. Specialization and trade integration subjected economies to a commodity lottery in the form of price fluctuations in world markets. Capital mobility and a currency peg exposed them to interest-rate movements originating i...
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作者：Ferreira, Thiago R. T.; Shousha, Samer
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Insper
摘要：We provide a comprehensive account of the determinants of global longer-run neutral interest rates-the real component of policy interest rates consistent with both economic activity and inflation at their longer-run trends. Using a cross-country model for 11 advanced economies in the 1960-2019 period, we simultaneously account for productivity, demographics, global supply of safe assets, demand factors for safe assets, and global spillovers faced by each economy from the rest of the world's de...
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作者：Goldberg, Linda S.; Krogstrup, Signe
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：The risk sensitivity of international capital flow pressures is explored using a new Exchange Market Pressure index that combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments with model-based estimates of incipient pressures that are masked by foreign exchange interventions and policy rate adjustments. The sensitivity of capital flow pressures to risk sentiment evolves over time, varies significantly across countries, and differs between normal times and extreme stress events. Across countr...
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作者：Cook, David; Patel, Nikhil
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper reexamines the relationship between monetary policy, exchange rates and international trade in a world characterized by the dominant currency paradigm and global value chains. Using a three-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, it documents key differences between the response of gross and value added trade flows to interest rate shocks, and offers a framework to test them in the data. The exercise uncovers a new margin of adjustment where value added trade fl...
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作者：Bordo, Michael D.; Meissner, Christopher M.
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Davis; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Do exchange rate movements matter for how markets price foreign currency denominated sovereign bonds? High-frequency bond price data from 1931 show that depreciation against the dollar/gold was associated with elevated risk premia on US dollar/gold public debt. We use a theoretical model to illustrate how foreign currency debt influences exchange rate policy and foreign currency bond prices. We use these theoretical results, the timing of sterling's devaluation in September 1931, and historica...
