2023

最新文章

• Endogenous production networks with fixed costs AI翻译
  作者：Dhyne, Emmanuel; Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken; Kong, Xianglong; Mogstad, Magne; Tintelnot, Felix
  作者单位：European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium; University of British Columbia; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：We develop a model of endogenous production networks with fixed costs in the formation of links between firms. We show that the closed economy equilibrium is unique if the set of feasible networks consists only of networks that are acyclic and the buyer initiates the link formation while having full bargaining power in price negotiations with the supplier. We provide examples of multiple equilibria if the supplier initiates the link formation in both cyclic and acyclic feasible networks or if ...
• Endogenous product adjustment and exchange rate pass-through AI翻译
  作者：Freitag, Andreas; Lein, Sarah M.
  作者单位：University of Basel; University of Basel
  摘要：We document how product quality responds to exchange rate movements and quantify the extent to which these quality changes affect the aggregate pass-through into export prices. We analyze the substantial sudden appreciation of the Swiss franc post removal of the 1.20-CHF-per-euro lower bound in 2015 using export data representing a large share of the universe of goods exports from Switzerland. We find that firms upgrade the quality of their products after the appreciation. Furthermore, they di...
• The open-economy ELB: Contractionary monetary easing and the trilemma AI翻译
  作者：Cavallino, Paolo; Sandri, Damiano
  作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
  摘要：Contrary to Mundell's trilemma, we show that free capital mobility may prevent monetary pol-icy from ensuring output stability even if the exchange rate is flexible due to the existence of an Effective Lower Bound. The ELB is an interest rate threshold below which monetary easing becomes contractionary because of adverse effects on credit supply. A tightening in global monetary and financial conditions increases the ELB and may force central banks to hike rates even though domestic economic ac...
• The global minimum tax raises more revenues than you think, or much less AI翻译
  作者：Janeba, Eckhard; Schjelderup, Guttorm
  作者单位：University of Mannheim; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
  摘要：The OECD's global minimum tax (GMT) of 15% on what is deemed excess profit of multina-tionals aims to reduce profit shifting to low-tax jurisdictions. . We study the revenue effects of the GMT by focusing on strategic tax setting effects. The direct effect from less profit shifting increases revenues in high-tax countries. A secondary effect, however, is that the value of attracting foreign investments increases, which intensifies tax competition. We show that when governments compete via lump...
• Unilateral tax policy in the open economy AI翻译
  作者：Kohl, Miriam; Richter, Philipp M.
  作者单位：Johannes Gutenberg University of Mainz; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Mannheim; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung
  摘要：This paper examines the effects of a unilateral reform of a redistributive tax-transfer system in an open economy. Compared to autarky, a tax increase leads to a smaller decline in aggregate income in the open economy, and it is also more effective at reducing income inequality, provided the tax rates are sufficiently low. Aggregating effects on income and income inequality using an Atkinson social welfare function, we find that optimal tax rates are positive in the open economy and higher tha...
• Migration, tariffs, and China's export surge* AI翻译
  作者：Liu, Chen; Ma, Xiao
  作者单位：National University of Singapore; Peking University; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen)
  摘要：We build a multi-sector spatial general equilibrium model that features heterogeneous firms' and workers' location choices to account for China's export surge between 1990 and 2005 using three policy changes: China's import tariffs, tariffs imposed against China's exports, and barriers to internal migration in China. We find that tariff and migration policies jointly ac-counted for 30% of China's export growth. We also find evidence that suggests a positive inter-action effect of tariff and mi...
• Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach AI翻译
  作者：Bluwstein, Kristina; Buckmann, Marcus; Joseph, Andreas; Kapadia, Sujit; Simsek, Ozgur
  作者单位：Bank of England; European Central Bank; University of Bath
  摘要：We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction by applying machine learning techniques to macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870-2016. Most nonlinear machine learning models outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley values, uncovering nonlinear relationships between the predictors and crisis risk. Throughout, the most important predict...
• On the effects of income heterogeneity in monopolistically competitive markets AI翻译
  作者：Kichko, Sergei; Picard, Pierre M.
  作者单位：University of Trento; University of Luxembourg; Universite Catholique Louvain
  摘要：This paper studies the market and welfare effects of income heterogeneity in monopolistically competitive product markets in the context of nonhomothetic preferences. In a closed economy, where richer individuals' expenditures are less sensitive to price change compared to poorer ones', a mean-preserving contraction of income distribution entices firms to charge higher markups, reduce output, and fosters creation of new varieties. General equilibrium effects have a negative impact on poorer in...
• Global financial cycle and liquidity management AI翻译
  作者：Jeanne, Olivier; Sandri, Damiano
  作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
  摘要：We use a tractable model to show that emerging markets can protect themselves from the global financial cycle by expanding (rather than restricting) capital flows. This involves accumulating foreign liquid assets when global liquidity is high to then buy back domestic assets at a discount when global financial conditions tighten. Since the private sector does not internalize how this buffering mechanism reduces international borrowing costs, a social planner increases the size of capital flows...
• Longevity and the value of trade relationships AI翻译
  作者：Monarch, Ryan; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim
  作者单位：Syracuse University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
  摘要：More than 80 percent of U.S. imports occur in preexisting firm-to-firm relationships, and disruptions to them can have large and long-lasting effects. Using U.S. Census data, this paper shows that as importers and their suppliers transact repeatedly, traded quantities and survival probabilities rise. We develop a general equilibrium trade model with relationship dynamics that is consistent with these facts. The quantification implies that long-term relationships are substantially more valuable...