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作者：Lastauskas, Povilas; Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Vilnius University; International Monetary Fund
摘要：We build a new empirical model, which admits time-varying variances of local structural shocks, to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of US monetary policy shocks. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the endogenous variables and time-varying volatility in the global setting, we find that US interest rate uncertainty not only drives local output and inflation volatility, but also causes declines in output, inflation, and the interest rate. Moreover, we docu...
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作者：Minesso, Massimo Ferrari; Pagliari, Maria Sole
作者单位：European Central Bank; European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV
摘要：We explore the cross-country implications of climate-related mitigation policies. Specifically, we set up and estimate a three-country, two-sector (brown vs green) DSGE model with negative production externalities stemming from carbon-dioxide emissions. The model is used to characterize the welfare-enhancing equilibrium under alternative containment policies. According to the optimal policy mix: i) fiscal policy focuses on reducing emissions; ii) countries cooperate with each other to reduce t...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; Cordonier, Rachel; Merrouche, Ouarda
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：An unintended consequence of loose US monetary policy is the increase in currency risk exposure abroad. Using firm-level data on corporate bond issuances in 16 emerging market economies (EMEs) between 2003 and 2017, we find that EME companies are more likely to issue bonds in foreign currency when US interest rates are low. This effect is driven by nonexporters. Interestingly, capital controls on bond inflows significantly decrease the likelihood of issuing in foreign currency and can even eli...
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作者：Caballero, Maria Esther; Cadena, Brian C.; Kovak, Brian K.
作者单位：American University; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Carnegie Mellon University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using newly validated data on geographic migration networks, we study how labor demand shocks in the United States propagate across the border with Mexico. We show that the large exogenous decline in US employment brought about by the Great Recession affected demographic and economic outcomes in Mexican communities that were highly connected to the most affected markets in the US. In the Mexican locations with strong initial ties to the hardest hit US migrant destinations, return migration inc...
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作者：Fillat, Jose L.; Garetto, Stefania; Corea-Smith, Arthur, V
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Cornerstone Research
摘要：Regulatory reforms typically follow financial crises. We propose a model of global banking that can be used proactively to study alternative regulatory policies. The model mimics the US reg-ulatory framework and highlights the organizational choices that banks face when entering a foreign market: branching versus subsidiarization. The model is able to replicate the response of the US banking sector to the European sovereign debt crisis. Counterfactual analysis suggests that pervasive subsidiar...
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作者：Zheng, Huanhuan
作者单位：National University of Singapore
摘要：We utilize the global natural experiment created by the COVID-19 outbreak to identify sover-eign borrowing capacity in time of need and its determinants. First, we demonstrate that the pandemic creates exogeneous shocks to sovereign borrowing needs-governments borrowed more when hit by more severe pandemic shocks. Second, we show that credible fiscal rules en-hance sovereign borrowing capacity, while unsustainable debts in terms of high debt-to-GDP ratio, rollover risk, and sovereign default r...
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作者：Nigai, Sergey
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：This paper argues that the cost of trade-induced inequality in terms of aggregate gains from trade is decreasing with globalization. I use a general equilibrium model of trade and show that at low levels of trade openness, a 1% point increase in real per capita income due to higher trade is associated with percentage point increases of 0.5, 0.85, and 0.92 in the Gini, Atkinson and Theil indices, respectively. These trade-offs, however, quickly decline upon opening up to trade and converge towa...
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作者：Hong, Seungki
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University
摘要：This paper estimates the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of transitory income shocks for an emerging economy, Peru, using its nationally representative household survey. The mean quarterly MPC across Peruvian income deciles is 0.204, which translates to a mean annualized MPC of 0.545-0.592 under both model-free and model-based annualization methods. To compare Peruvian and U.S. MPCs reflecting the different reference periods of the underlying surveys, I employ a standard incomplete-ma...
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作者：Kobielarz, M. L.
作者单位：KU Leuven
摘要：The Eurozone bailouts consisted of credit lines with favorable lending conditions, equivalent to countries receiving implicit fiscal transfers. They are often interpreted as meant to prevent a default in the Eurozone or resolve the crisis. Contrary to this narrative, Greece defaulted on its debt and went through a deep and prolonged recession, despite receiving fiscal assistance. This paper analyzes country bailouts in a monetary union within a framework where sovereign default and exit from t...
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作者：Mengus, Eric
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris
摘要：This paper provides a theory of endogenous implicit guarantees on risky assets, in which a government's bailouts take the form of asset purchases to alleviate asymmetric information on private liquidity needs. As a result of asymmetric information, direct transfers to agents are imperfect so that, when more constrained agents are also more exposed to a given asset, asset purchases by the government are optimal. When anticipated, this form of bailouts leads to an endogenous implicit guarantee p...
