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作者：Klotz, Richard; Sharma, Rishi R.
作者单位：Colgate University; Colgate University
摘要：We highlight the key role of changes in the transportation and use of intermediate inputs in determining the CO2 consequences of reductions in trade barriers such as tariffs and transpor-tation efficiency improvements. Reductions in trade barriers increase gross flows relative to value added - a lengthening of value chains - thereby increasing transportation emissions. Reductions in trade barriers also increase wages relative to the price of other goods, which in-creases the quantity of interm...
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作者：Conesa, Juan Carlos; Kehoe, Timothy J.
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; Stony Brook University; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：By preemptive austerity, we mean a policy that increases taxes to deter potential rollover crises. The policy is so successful that the usual danger signal of a rollover crisis, a high yield on new bonds sold, does not show up, because the policy eliminates the danger. Mechanically, high taxes make the safe zone in the model - the set of sovereign debt levels for which the government prefers to repay its debt rather than default - larger. By announcing a high tax rate at the beginning of the p...
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作者：Alessandria, George; Khan, Shafaat Yar; Khederlarian, Armen; Mix, Carter; Ruhl, Kim J.
作者单位：University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Rochester; University of Connecticut; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the aggregate effects of supply-chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous -firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that depend on the source of supply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inp...
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作者：Demirguec-Kunt, Asli; Horvath, Balint L.; Huizinga, Harry
作者单位：University of Arizona; Tilburg University
摘要：This paper examines the impact of international differences in capital regulation on multinational banks' loan origination location decisions. International loan location decisions represent a key banking margin that has previously not been examined in the literature on regulatory arbitrage by banks. Our estimation relies on within-loan contribution variation in location options for individual multinational banks that participate in a syndicated loan. We examine how the loan location choice an...
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作者：Geiger, Martin; Gruendler, Daniel; Scharler, Johann
作者单位：University of Innsbruck
摘要：We study how consumers assess the effects of monetary policy shocks in euro area countries using survey data. Our findings provide evidence that consumers form expectations in a way that is broadly consistent with empirical and theoretical models of the monetary transmission mechanism, both at the aggregate level and at the country level. Although the euro area coun-tries are characterized by economic and institutional heterogeneity, consumers' interpretations of the macroeconomic effects of m...
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作者：Lee, Woori; Mulabdic, Alen; Ruta, Michele
作者单位：The World Bank; International Monetary Fund; International Monetary Fund
摘要：How do regional trade agreements impact exporters in non-member countries? We revisit this long-standing trade policy question using firm-level data from Costa Rica and detailed information on the content of trade agreements. Differently from the conventional view on trade diversion, the analysis shows that deep regional trade agreements can have a positive spillover effect: they increase the probability of export and entry of third-country firms that previously exported to one of the member c...
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作者：Batista, Catia; Mckenzie, David
作者单位：Universidade Nova de Lisboa; The World Bank
摘要：We test different classic migration theories by using incentivized laboratory experiments to investigate how potential migrants decide between working in different destinations. We assess theories of income maximization, skill-selection, and multi-destination choice, as we vary migration costs, risk, social benefits, and incomplete information. The standard income maximization model leads to a much higher migration rate and more negative skill-selection than occurs when migration decisions tak...
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作者：Converse, Nathan; Mallucci, Enrico
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：How do international investors adjust their portfolios in response to sovereign risk? We answer this question by combining data on default probabilities for 31 developed and emerging markets with monthly data on the portfolios of individual bond mutual funds. We show that bond funds reduce their exposure to a country when sovereign default risk increases, indicating that changes in yields do not fully compensate investors for additional sovereign risk. We find that the magnitude of the respons...
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作者：Kim, Jihee; Kim, Kyoochul; Park, Sangyoon; Sun, Chang
作者单位：Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology (KAIST); Korea Development Institute (KDI); Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; University of Hong Kong
摘要：This paper investigates the economic costs of the recent United Nations sanctions on North Korea. Exploiting a novel data set on North Korean firms, we construct measures of regional exposure to export and intermediate input sanctions and show that trade sanctions cause sharp declines in local nighttime luminosity. Additional analysis of newly available product -level price data reveals that import sanctions led to significant increases in market prices. We then estimate a quantitative spatial...
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作者：Bennett, Federico; Montamat, Giselle; Roch, Francisco
作者单位：The World Bank; International Monetary Fund; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：We consider how fears of model misspecification on the part of the planner and/or the house-holds affect welfare gains from optimal macroprudential taxes in an economy with occasionally binding collateral constraints. In this setup, the decentralized equilibrium may differ from the social planner's equilibrium both because of the pecuniary externalities associated with the collateral constraint and because of the paternalistic imposition of the planner's beliefs when designing policy. When rob...
