-
作者：Krishna, Pravin; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Ma, Lin; Maloney, William F.
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Singapore Management University; The World Bank; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia)
摘要：This paper studies the cross-country patterns of risky innovation and growth through the lens of international trade. We use a simple theoretical framework of risky quality upgrading by firms under varying levels of financial development to derive two predictions. First, the mean rate of quality growth and the corresponding cross-sectional variance of quality growth in a country are positively correlated. Second, both the mean and variance of quality changes are positively correlated with the ...
-
作者：Aldasoro, Inaki; Beltran, Paula; Grinberg, Federico; Mancini-Griffoli, Tommaso
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); International Monetary Fund
摘要：We provide novel empirical evidence on the effects of cross-border bank lending on emerging market economies' (EMEs) macro-financial conditions. We identify causal effects by leveraging the heterogeneity in the size distribution of bilateral cross-border bank lending to construct granular instrumental variables for aggregate cross-border bank lending to 22 EMEs. Cross-border bank credit causes higher domestic activity in EMEs and looser financial conditions. Financial condition indices ease, n...
-
作者：Lutz, Flora; Zessner-Spitzenberg, Leopold
作者单位：University of Vienna; Humboldt University of Berlin
摘要：We propose a small open economy model where agents borrow internationally and invest in liquid foreign assets to insure against liquidity shocks, which temporarily shut out the economy of short-term credit markets. Due to a pecuniary externality, individual agents overborrow and hold too little liquid assets relative to a social planner. This inefficiency rationalizes macroprudential policy intervention in the form of reserve accumulation at the central bank to stabilize trade and the real exc...
-
作者：Ferrari, Alessandro; Picco, Anna Rogantini
作者单位：University of Zurich; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：This paper empirically evaluates whether adopting a common currency has changed the level of consumption smoothing of euro area member states. We construct a counterfactual dataset of macroeconomic variables through the synthetic control method. We then use the output variance decomposition of Asdrubali et al. (1996) on both the actual and the synthetic data to study if there has been a change in risk sharing and through which channels. We find that the euro adoption has reduced risk sharing a...
-
作者：Liu, Yan; Marimon, Ramon; Wicht, Adrien
作者单位：Wuhan University; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); European University Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Basel
摘要：We develop an optimal design of a Financial Stability Fund that coexists with the international debt market. The sovereign can borrow defaultable bonds on the private international market, while having with the Fund a long-term contingent contract subject to limited enforcement constraints. The Fund contract does not have ex ante conditionality, but requires an accurate country-specific risk-assessment (DSA), accounting for the Fund contract. The Fund periodically announces the level of liabil...
-
作者：Laeven, Luc; Popov, Alexander
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：Using data on syndicated loans, we find that the introduction of a carbon tax is associated with a decline (increase) in bank lending to coal, oil, and gas companies in domestic (foreign) markets. This manifestation of tax arbitrage is particularly pronounced for banks with large fossillending exposures, suggesting a role for bank specialization. Lending to private companies in foreign markets increases relatively more, implying bank incentives to avoid public scrutiny. We also find that banks...
-
作者：Cardi, Olivier; Restout, Romain
作者单位：Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Universite de Lorraine; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Lorraine; INRAE
摘要：Our evidence reveals that the rise in real GDP is uniformly distributed across sectors following a government spending shock while labor growth is concentrated in non-traded industries. A rationale behind these two findings lies in technology which responds endogenously to the government spending shock. While technology improvements are concentrated in traded industries, technological change is biased toward labor (capital) in non-traded (traded) indus-tries. To account for our evidence, we co...
-
作者：Engel, Charles; Wu, Steve Pak Yeung
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：A long-standing puzzle is the near-random-walk behavior of exchange rates. Recent literature has proposed models to forecast exchange rates at medium-and long-horizons. Such tests suf-fer from small-sample bias but inferring the true test distribution is difficult. We propose two approaches to address the problem. First, since economists are interested in the value of eco-nomic models versus purely statistical models, we propose a horse-race that pits the economic models not against the random...
-
作者：Jiang, Lingduo; Lu, Yi; Song, Hong; Zhang, Guofeng
作者单位：University of International Business & Economics; Tsinghua University; Fudan University
摘要：This paper investigates how exports respond to trade protection by studying the US-China trade war in 2018. Using monthly customs data in China from January 2017 to May 2019, we find that the launch of the trade war against Chinese exports by the US on average reduces Chinese total exports to the US by 16.47%. Further decomposition shows that the reduction in exports is mostly explained by a decrease in quantity, with prices relatively unchanged. Meanwhile, negative trade shocks cause export d...
-
作者：Cavallo, Alberto; Kryvtsov, Oleksiy
作者单位：Harvard University; Bank of Canada
摘要：We use a detailed micro dataset on product availability and stockouts to construct a direct high-frequency measure of consumer product shortages during the 2020-2022 pandemic. We document a widespread multi-fold rise in stockouts in nearly all sectors early in the pandemic. Over time, the composition evolved from temporary to more permanently discontinued products, concentrated in fewer sectors. We show that unexpected shocks to stockout levels have significant inflationary effects within thre...
