Commodity prices and the US dollar

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Rees, Daniel M.
• 署名单位: Bank for International Settlements (BIS)
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104114
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Time series models; Foreign exchange; Open economy macroeconomics

摘要

In the aftermath of the Covid pandemic rising commodity prices went hand-in-hand with a strengthening US dollar. This was a sharp contrast to the usual relationship between commodity prices and the dollar. This paper presents evidence that post-Covid correlation patterns could become more common in the future. This conclusion rests on two observations. First, the US dollar exhibits a close and stable relationship with the US terms of trade. Second, the United States' shift from being a net oil importer to a net oil exporter means that higher commodity prices now tend to raise the US terms of trade, rather than lowering them. Changes in the relationship between commodity prices and the US dollar will have implications for commodity exporters and importers alike.