Measuring foreign exposure

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Imbs, Jean; Pauwels, Laurent
• 署名单位: New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104126
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Propagation of supply; Demand and trade shocks; openness; Global value chains; GROWTH; Synchronization

摘要

We introduce a model-based approximation for assessing foreign exposure via direct and indirect trade. In the model, exposure can be approximated by the fraction of production sold abroad, either directly or indirectly. Simulations show that this ratio accurately reflects the responses of value added to foreign supply shocks across most of the parameter space. It also effectively captures the responses of value added to foreign demand or trade shocks for a more restricted range of parameters. Conversely, other well-known metrics of foreign exposure do not perform well in the simulations. Data show that our measure of foreign exposure correlates significantly with various measures of economic activity, even in service sectors generally thought to insulated from foreign influences. In contrast, these correlations are either insignificant incorrectly signed when alternative measures of foreign exposure are used.