The macroeconomic cost of temperature risk

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alessandri, Piergiorgio; Mumtaz, Haroon
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; University of London; Queen Mary University London
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104157
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: temperature volatility; Economic growth; Panel VAR

摘要

We study the impact of temperature risk on economic growth exploiting a novel panel VAR model and data on 160 countries since the 1960s. We show that the conditional volatility of annual temperatures-a measure of ex ante temperature risk-varied significantly over time, with important implications for growth. Controlling for concomitant changes in temperature levels, an exogenous +1 degrees C increase in temperature risk causes on average a 0.4 per cent decline in GDP growth and a one per cent increase in the volatility of GDP.