A search and learning model of export dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eaton, Jonathan; Eslava, Marcela; Jinkins, David; Krizan, C. J.; Tybout, James
• 署名单位: Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia); Copenhagen Business School
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104155
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: International trade; Export dynamics; search; learning

摘要

Exporting is harder than selling at home, and overcoming barriers takes time. We identify key obstacles to exporting and measure their importance by developing a model of firm-level export dynamics with costly customer search, visibility effects, and learning about product appeal. Fitting the model to U.S. import data on Colombian manufactures, we replicate patterns of exporter maturation. A firm's customer base and market knowledge are valuable intangible assets: losing both through market amnesia would cost Colombian exporters US$14.2 billion, over twice annual exports to the U.S. About a quarter of this reflects lost future sales to current customers; the rest stems from the cost of relearning product appeal and regaining visibility. The frictions we estimate slow trade's response to shocks: the 10-year export sales response to an exchange rate shock is 48 percent larger than the 1-year response.