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作者：Halvorsen, Elin; Holter, Hans A.; Ozkan, Serdar; Storesletten, Kjetil
作者单位：Statistics Norway; University of Delaware; University of Oslo; University of Toronto; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：This paper examines whether nonlinear and non-Gaussian features of earnings dynamics are caused by hours or hourly wages. Our findings from the Norwegian administrative and survey data are as follows: (i) Nonlinear mean reversion in earnings is driven by the dynamics of hours worked rather than wages since wage dynamics are close to linear, while hours dynamics are nonlinear-negative changes to hours are transitory, while positive changes are persistent. (ii) Large earnings changes are driven ...
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作者：Goldstein, Nathan
作者单位：Bar Ilan University
摘要：This study proposes a real-time estimate of inattention, based on micro-level data. I show that a simple specification that estimates the persistence of a forecaster's deviation from the mean provides a direct estimate of parameters of information frictions according to prominent models of expectations. The new estimate can also be interpreted as a hybrid measure of both information frictions and behavioral frictions. Using the new specification, I revise several key findings documented in the...
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作者：Fiorin, Stefano
作者单位：Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：I show that offering monetary rewards to whistleblowers can backfire as a moral aversion to being paid for harming others can reverse the effect of financial incentives. I run a field experiment with employees of the Afghan Ministry of Education, who are asked to confidentially report on their colleagues' attendance. I use a two-by-two design, randomizing whether or not reporting absence carries a monetary incentive as well as the perceived consequentiality of the reports. In the consequential...
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作者：Alfaro, Laura; Cunat, Alejandro; Fadinger, Harald; Liu, Yanping
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Vienna; University of Mannheim; Cornerstone Research
摘要：We build a dynamic heterogeneous-firm model in which real depreciations raise export demand and the cost of importing intermediates, and also affect borrowing constraints and the profitability of engaging in research and development (R&D). A number of stylized facts on manufacturing firms for a large set of countries discipline our estimation: Firms in emerging East Asia are very export oriented and rely little on imported intermediates, whereas the opposite holds for Latin America and Eastern...
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作者：Alfano, Marco; Gorlach, Joseph-Simon
作者单位：Lancaster University; Bocconi University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bocconi University; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：We relate terrorist attacks to media signal coverage and schooling in Kenya to examine how terrorism alters the demand for education through perceived risks and returns. Exploiting variation in wireless signal coverage and attacks across space and time, we establish that media access reinforces negative effects of terrorism on schooling. Our results are robust to instrumenting both media signal and attacks. We also find that attacks raise self-reported fears for households with media access. B...
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作者：Lichtig, Avi; Weksler, Ran
作者单位：University of Bonn; University of Haifa
摘要：The severity of adverse selection depends, to a great extent, on the underlying distribution of the asset. This distribution is commonly modeled as exogenous; however, in many real-world applications, it is determined endogenously. A natural question in this context is whether one can predict the severity of the adverse selection problem in such environments. In this paper, we study a bilateral trade model in which the distribution of the asset is affected by pre-trade unobservable actions of ...
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作者：Bonfatti, Roberto; Brey, Bjorn
作者单位：University of Padua; University of Nottingham; University of Oxford
摘要：Colonial trade prompted the colonies to specialise in primary products. Did this eliminate industrialisation opportunities in the colonies, and did it make them more politically dependent on the coloniser? To answer these questions, we examine the impact of the World War I trade shock on industrial growth and support for the anti-colonial movement in India. We find that districts more exposed to a drop in imports experienced faster industrial growth in 1911-1921, thereafter remaining on a high...
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作者：Chevalier, Arnaud; Elsner, Benjamin; Lichter, Andreas; Pestel, Nico
作者单位：University of London; Royal Holloway University London; University College Dublin; Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf; Maastricht University
摘要：We study the effect of forced migration on public policy setting in the migrant-receiving country. After World War II, eight million expelled Germans arrived in West Germany within 5 years. We use regional variation in the population share of forced migrants across West German cities to estimate the effect of this inflow on cities' taxation and spending decisions. To identify a causal effect, we pursue an instrumental variable strategy that leverages push factors of the expulsions while being ...
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作者：Thuemmel, Uwe
作者单位：University of Zurich
摘要：I study the optimal taxation of robots, other capital, and labor income. I show that it is optimal to distort robot adoption. The robot tax (or subsidy) exploits general-equilibrium effects to compress wages, which reduces income-tax distortions of labor supply, thereby raising welfare. In the calibrated model, when robots are expensive, a robot subsidy is optimal. As robots get cheaper, it becomes optimal to tax them. Yet, when reforming the status-quo tax system, most welfare gains can be ac...
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作者：Borella, Margherita; De Nardi, Mariacristina; Pak, Michael; Russo, Nicolo; Yang, Fang
作者单位：University of Turin; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Harvard University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas
摘要：The structure of taxes and their burden have undergone large and frequent changes over time. We provide a brief history of U.S. federal income tax reform since the 1960s, calculate effective federal income tax rates for each wave of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and discuss how effective taxation changed from 1969 to 2016. We show that most tax regimes are short-lived and that the variation in taxes over time and across groups is large. We also use an estimated dynamic model of couples a...
