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作者：Buehler, Mathias
作者单位：University of Munich
摘要：Can well-defined access rights to publicly owned land be as effective as privatization in increasing productivity and wealth? In this paper, I evaluate the impact of public property rights using the 1934 Taylor Grazing Act, which determined secure access rights for ranchers to newly created, large grazing districts in the Western United States. Using satellite-based vegetation data, I exploit spatial discontinuities across grazing district boundaries and find that public lands with well-define...
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作者：Fujiwara, Thomas; Muller, Karsten; Schwarz, Carlo
作者单位：Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research; National University of Singapore; Bocconi University
摘要：We study how social media affects election outcomes in the United States. We use variation in the number of Twitter users across counties induced by early adopters at the 2007 South by Southwest festival, a key event in Twitter's rise to popularity. We show that this variation is unrelated to observable county characteristics and electoral outcomes before the launch of Twitter. Our results indicate that Twitter lowered the Republican vote share in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, but ...
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作者：Bursztyn, Leonardo; Cantoni, Davide; Funk, Patricia; Schonenberger, Felix; Yuchtman, Noam
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of Munich; Universita della Svizzera Italiana; University of Oxford
摘要：We provide evidence of a causal effect of anticipated election closeness on voter turnout, exploiting the precise day-level timing of the release of Swiss national poll results for high-stakes federal referenda, and a novel dataset on daily mail-in voting for the canton of Geneva. Using an event study design, we find that the release of a closer poll causes voter turnout to sharply rise immediately after poll release, with no differential pre-release turnout levels or trends. We provide eviden...
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作者：Lombardi, Marco J.; Riggi, Marianna; Viviano, Eliana
作者单位：Bank for International Settlements (BIS); European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：We use a general equilibrium model to show that a decrease in workers' bargaining power amplifies the contribution to the output gap of adjustments along the extensive versus intensive margin of labour utilization. Under standard assumptions on the disutility of labour, this mechanism reduces the cyclical movements of inflation relative to those of the output gap. Micro-level evidence, based on a survey of Italian firms, provides support to the relationship between bargaining power and adjustm...
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作者：Melosi, Leonardo; Rottner, Matthias
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：We study contact tracing in a new macro-epidemiological model with asymptomatic transmission and limited testing capacity. Contact tracing is a testing strategy that aims to reconstruct the infection chain of newly symptomatic agents. This strategy may be unsuccessful because of an externality leading agents to expand their interactions at rates exceeding policymakers' ability to test all the traced contacts. Complementing contact tracing with timely deployed containment measures (e.g., social...
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作者：Zhang, Hongliang; Zhang, Junsen; Zhang, Ning
作者单位：Zhejiang University; University of Oxford
摘要：In the mass movement of sending urban youth to the countryside during China's Cultural Revolution, many families with multiple age-eligible children were forced to make a send-down choice among the siblings. We exploit this rare social experiment and employ data on urban twins in China to investigate the effect of childhood send-down experience on children's old-age support to parents. We find that compared with their twin siblings who had stayed in the city, send-downs were less likely to mak...
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作者：Battisti, Michele; Dustmann, Christian; Schoenberg, Uta
作者单位：University of Glasgow; University of London; University College London; University of London; University College London
摘要：This paper investigates the effects of technological and organizational change (T&O) on jobs and workers. We show that although T&O reduces firm demand for routine relative to abstract task-based jobs, affected workers do not face higher probability of non-employment or lower earnings growth than unaffected workers. Rather, firms that adopt T&O offer routine workers retraining opportunities to upgrade to more abstract jobs. Older workers form an important exception: T&O increases the risk that...
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作者：Ma, Chang; Rogers, John; Zhou, Sili
作者单位：Fudan University; University of Macau; University of Macau
摘要：We examine the immediate and bounce-back effects from six modern health crises that preceded Covid-19. Time-series models for a large cross-section of economies indicate that real GDP growth falls by around 2 percentage points in affected economies relative to unaffected economies in the year of the outbreak. Bounce-back in GDP growth is rapid and strong, especially when compared to non-health crises. Unemployment for less educated workers is higher and exhibits more persistence, and there is ...
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作者：Martinez, Seung-Keun; Meier, Stephan; Sprenger, Charles
作者单位：University of Nottingham; Columbia University; California Institute of Technology
摘要：Understanding the structure of time preferences allows for accurate predictions of the effects of changing intertemporal incentives. Behavioral models of present bias are used to rationalize field data seemingly at odds with exponential discounting, leveraging additional degrees of freedom to improve in-sample fit. Largely lacking to date are the critical out-of-sample tests necessary to ensure predictive accuracy. This paper contrasts exponential discounting with present-biased procrastinatio...
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作者：Askarov, Zohid; Doucouliagos, Anthony; Doucouliagos, Hristos; Stanley, T. D.
作者单位：Westminster International University Tashkent; Deakin University; Deakin University
摘要：We assess the impact of mandating data-sharing in economics journals on two dimensions of research credibility: statistical significance and excess statistical significance (ESS). ESS is a necessary condition for publication selection bias. Quasi-experimental difference-in-differences analysis of 20,121 estimates published in 24 general interest and leading field journals shows that data-sharing policies have reduced reported statistical significance and the associated t-values. The magnitude ...
