Forced Migration and Local Public Policies: Evidence from Post-War West Germany

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Chevalier, Arnaud; Elsner, Benjamin; Lichter, Andreas; Pestel, Nico
• 署名单位: University of London; Royal Holloway University London; University College Dublin; Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf; Maastricht University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1542-4766
• DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad043
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: economic-impact; shocks evidence; immigration; expellees; refugees; institutions; TECHNOLOGY; inflows; LESSONS; COSTS

摘要

We study the effect of forced migration on public policy setting in the migrant-receiving country. After World War II, eight million expelled Germans arrived in West Germany within 5 years. We use regional variation in the population share of forced migrants across West German cities to estimate the effect of this inflow on cities' taxation and spending decisions. To identify a causal effect, we pursue an instrumental variable strategy that leverages push factors of the expulsions while being orthogonal to local conditions in the destination regions. Our results show that cities with high inflows of forced migrants increased spending on welfare and education, decreased spending on infrastructure, raised local taxes, and incurred more debt. Part of these effects can be attributed to shifts in political preferences. The migrants held voting rights upon arrival and supported parties that explicitly catered to their interests and needs.