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作者：Meh, Cesaire A.; Quadrini, Vincenzo; Terajima, Yaz
作者单位：Bank of Canada; University of Southern California
摘要：When financial contracts are not fully enforceable and firms observe their own nominal sales before the observation of the aggregate nominal price, the optimal financial contract is not fully indexed to inflation. Because of the limited nominal indexation, which is endogenous in the model, unanticipated inflation affects aggregate investment and future economic activity. The macroeconomic volatility induced by price uncertainty, however, is not monotone: It first increases and then decreases w...
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作者：Kaufmann, Christoph
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：This paper examines the role of international investment funds in the transmission of global financial conditions to the euro area using structural Bayesian vector auto regressions. While cross-border banking sector capital flows receded significantly in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, portfolio flows from investors actively searching for yield on financial markets worldwide gained importance during the post-crisis second phase of global liquidity. The analysis presented in this ...
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作者：Hurtado, Samuel; Nuno, Galo; Thomas, Carlos
作者单位：Banco de Espana
摘要：We analyze the consequences of monetary policy for sovereign debt sustainability and welfare in a model of a small open economy where the government issues long-term nominal debt without a commitment not to default on it or erode its real value through (costly) inflation. Inflation is a form of partial default, one that is more state-contingent than outright default. This reduces the government's incentives to default outright and hence enlarges the repayment region, compared to a regime in wh...
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作者：Costa, Francisco; Marcantonio, Angelo; Rocha, Rudi
作者单位：University of Delaware; Getulio Vargas Foundation; Getulio Vargas Foundation
摘要：This paper estimates the effects of economic downturns on the expansion of Pentecostal Evangelicalism in Brazil. Regions more exposed to economic distress experienced a persistent rise both in Pentecostal affiliation and in the vote share of candidates connected to Pentecostal churches in national legislative elections. Once elected, these politicians carry out an agenda with greater emphasis on issues that are sensitive to fundamental religious principles. We, therefore, find that recessions ...
