-
作者：Cacciatore, Matteo; Ghironi, Fabio
作者单位：Universite de Montreal; HEC Montreal; University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：We study how trade linkages affect the conduct of monetary policy in a two-country model with heterogeneous firms, endogenous producer entry, and labor market frictions. We show that the ability of the model to replicate key empirical regularities following trade integration-synchronization of business cycles across trading partners and reallocation of market shares toward more productive firms-is central to understanding how trade costs affect monetary policy trade-offs. First, productivity g...
-
作者：Bohn, Timon; Brakman, Steven; Dietzenbacher, Erik
作者单位：University of Groningen
摘要：The existence of multinational firms and the rise of global value chains raise the question how international trade contributes to a country's income. Ownership relations between, for example, headquarters and subsidiaries result in international income transfers. These transfers are ignored in standard trade data. Taking them into account in a global input-output analysis allows us to assess how much income is generated in one country due to the consumption of final products in another countr...
-
作者：Hambel, Christoph; Kraft, Holger; Schwartz, Eduardo
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Simon Fraser University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The recent literature has derived simple formulas for the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) that are easy to interpret, but that only apply to the global economy. This is an issue since international transfers to sustain the global optimum with the same carbon price for all countries are still lacking after thirty years of climate summits. The main research objective of our paper is to obtain tractable analytical and interpretable formulas for the SCC, the optimal carbon taxes, and the optimal consu...
-
作者：Reitz, Stefan; Umlandt, Dennis
作者单位：University of Kiel; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW); Universitat Trier
摘要：We show that excess returns to the carry trade can be interpreted as compensation for foreign exchange dealers' capital risk. Given that the top market makers in foreign exchange are at the heart of the market's information aggregation process we also suggest that it is their marginal value of wealth which prices FX portfolio returns. Consistent with this hypothesis the empirical results show that shocks to the equity capital ratios of the top three foreign exchange dealers have explanatory po...
-
作者：Niemelainen, Julia
作者单位：University of Helsinki
摘要：In this paper I use a life-cycle model to study the role of population aging and pension income as drivers of China's persistent trade surplus vis-a-vis the United States. China's rapid increase in life expectancy coupled with its relatively low pension expenditures may help to explain the country's high savings rate, persistent trade surpluses and accumulation of a sizable net foreign asset position. Although China's high productivity growth has a strong negative impact on its trade balance, ...
-
作者：Davis, J. Scott; Valente, Giorgio; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA); University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Prior to the global financial crisis the empirical international capital flow literature focused on net capital flows (the current account), but since the crisis there has been an increased focus on gross flows. We jointly analyze global drivers of gross outflows, gross inflows, and net flows (outflows minus inflows) by estimating a latent factor model. We find evidence of two global factors, which we call the global financial cycle (GFC) factor and an energy price factor as they closely track...
-
作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; van Wincoop, Eric
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：The objective of this paper is to show that the proposal by Froot and Thaler (1990) of delayed portfolio adjustment can account for a broad set of puzzles about the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates. The puzzles include: i) the delayed overshooting puzzle; ii) the forward discount puzzle (or Fama puzzle); iii) the predictability reversal puzzle; iv) the Engel puzzle (high interest rate currencies are stronger than implied by UIP); v) the forward guidance exchange rate puzz...
-
作者：Beetsma, Roel; Furtuna, Oana; Giuliodori, Massimo; Mumtaz, Haroon
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; European Central Bank; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of London; Queen Mary University London; University of Amsterdam
摘要：Using a new narrative dataset on fiscal consolidation announcements for thirteen EU countries over the period 1978-2013, a panel VAR analysis shows that revenue-based announcements appear more credible, but affect economic activity more adversely than do spending-based announcements. Higher revenue multipliers and, to a lesser extent, larger actual follow-up following a revenue-based announcement help to explain the difference. The uniqueness of our dataset allows to control for anticipation e...
-
作者：Bonadio, Barthelemy; Huo, Zhen; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Yale University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth using a multi-sector quantitative framework implemented on 64 countries. We discipline the labor supply shock across sectors and countries using the fraction of work in the sector that can be done from home, interacted with the stringency with which countries imposed lockdown measures. One quarter of the total model-implied real GDP decline is due to transmission through global supply chains. However...
-
作者：Horn, Henrik; Tangeras, Thomas
作者单位：Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Cambridge; Stanford University
摘要：Nearly 2700 international investment agreements protect foreign investment against host country policies. This paper analyzes the design and implications of their contentious provisions regarding regulatory expropriations. It derives conditions under which carve-out compensation mechanisms, similar to those in actual agreements, solve underinvestment and overregulation problems and simultaneously distribute surplus according to countries' bargaining power. The paper examines a number of additi...
