External imbalances between China and the United States: A dynamic analysis with a life-cycle model

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Niemelainen, Julia
• 署名单位: University of Helsinki
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103493
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: current account; real interest rate; capital flows; Demographic development; Social Security; CHINA

摘要

In this paper I use a life-cycle model to study the role of population aging and pension income as drivers of China's persistent trade surplus vis-a-vis the United States. China's rapid increase in life expectancy coupled with its relatively low pension expenditures may help to explain the country's high savings rate, persistent trade surpluses and accumulation of a sizable net foreign asset position. Although China's high productivity growth has a strong negative impact on its trade balance, the model predicts a positive net foreign asset position and trade balance for China for most years in the simulation period. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.