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作者：Hauser, Daniela; Seneca, Martin
作者单位：Bank of England; Bank of Canada
摘要：Internal migration flows are endogenously driven by relative labor market performance in a New Keynesian DSGE model of a monetary union calibrated to U.S. data. When labor markets are competitive, a strict focus on stabilizing unionwide inflation remains close to optimal. With search and matching frictions in regional labor markets, labor mobility across state borders introduces additional trade-offs for optimal monetary policy since workers do not internalize the full effects of their individ...
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作者：Blanchard, Emily; Willmann, Gerald
作者单位：Dartmouth College; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Bielefeld; Leibniz Association; Institut fur Weltwirtschaft an der Universitat Kiel (IFW)
摘要：We develop a model of democratic responses to macroeconomic shocks, and show that when economic adjustment is slower than potential political change, economic shocks can trigger populist surges. Applied to trade policy, we show that unexpected changes in world prices or skill biased technological change can induce a surge in economic nationalism and trade protection. Over time, the initial protectionist surge will gradually diminish if and only if educational gains enable less-skilled workers ...
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作者：Auray, Stephane; Devereux, Michael B.; Eyquem, Aurelien
作者单位：Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); University of British Columbia; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Universite Lyon 2; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Institut Universitaire de France
摘要：We explore the cyclical pattern of trade protection in a simple New Keynesian open economy macro model. Tariff rates are determined endogenously in a sustainable equilibrium of a two country trade policy game. The incentive to levy tariffs is greater when the exchange rate is floating, since a fixed exchange rate removes the ability to manipulate the terms of trade. If price are fully flexible, we find that protectionism is basically a-cyclical. By contrast, with pre-set prices, tariffs respon...
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作者：Ederington, Josh; Paraschiv, Mihai; Zanardi, Maurizio
作者单位：University of Kentucky; State University of New York (SUNY) System; State University of New York (SUNY) - Oswego; University of Surrey
摘要：Does the ratification of an international environmental agreement (IEA) reduce a country's competitiveness on world markets? In this paper, we take a gravity regression approach to an-swering this question by using industry-level bilateral trade data and employing time-varying country fixed effects to control for the endogeneity of treaty participation. Based on sample of >200 countries and over 40 years, we find that ratifying an IEA results in a significant compo-sitional shift towards expor...
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作者：Bertinelli, Luisito; Cardi, Olivier; Restout, Romain
作者单位：University of Luxembourg; Lancaster University; Universite de Lorraine; Universites de Strasbourg Etablissements Associes; Universite de Strasbourg; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：Our VAR evidence for OECD countries reveals that the non-traded sector alone drives the increase in hours worked following a technology shock that increases permanently traded relative to non-traded TFP. The shock generates a reallocation of labor toward the non-traded sector which contributes to 35% of the rise in non-traded hours worked. Both labor reallocation and variations in labor income shares are found empirically connected with factor-biased technological change. Our quantitative anal...
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作者：Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Olovsson, Conny
作者单位：Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：We build and evaluate a global macroeconomic model incorporating natural-resource scarcity. The model features low short-run substitutability between the natural resource and other in-puts, while in the longer run endogenous directed technical change-allowing the economy to save on scarce resources-generates much higher substitutability, with rather stable cost shares. A nontrivial feature of the framework is secularly increasing resource use: initially, when the resource is abundant, much les...
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作者：Berthou, Antoine; Horny, Guillaume; Mesonnier, Jean-Stephane
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po)
摘要：Exporting firms face foreign exchange risk when the export contract is invoiced in a foreign currency. For instance, for firms located outside of the United States, the US dollar is often used as a vehicle currency. The cost of hedging against this risk represents an additional trade cost for exporters, which is specific to the targeted destination. In this paper, we exploit an episode of heightened tensions in the USD/EUR foreign exchange market in July 2011, which increased the cost of hedgi...
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作者：Samano, Agustin
摘要：Motivated by a positive correlation between reserve accumulation and the widespread adop-tion of central bank independence legislation in Latin America, this paper develops a sovereign default model with an independent central bank that can accumulate a risk-free foreign asset. I show that if the central bank is more patient than the government and as patient as house-holds are, in equilibrium, the government issues more debt than what is socially optimal, and the central bank accumulates rese...
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作者：Kee, Hiau Looi; Nicita, Alessandro
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：Similar to tariffs, non-tariff measures (NTMs) may induce trade fraud when they are restrictive. This paper examines whether discrepancies observed in the official trade statistics of importing and exporting countries are partly due to trade fraud from evading border NTMs. To capture the restrictiveness of NTMs, this paper estimates the ad valorem equivalent (AVE) with im-porter-exporter-product variations. This paper presents a theoretical model and empirical evi-dence showing that discrepanc...
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作者：Li, Xiang; Su, Dan
作者单位：Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH); Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg
摘要：Capital inflow surges destabilize the economy through a maturity shortening mechanism. The underlying reason is that firms have incentives to redeem their debt on demand to accommo-date the potential liquidity needs of global investors, which makes international borrowing en-dogenously fragile. Based on a theoretical model and empirical evidence at both the firm and macro levels, our main findings are twofold. First, a significant association exists between surges and shortened corporate debt ...
