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作者：Cole, Matthew T.; Lake, James; Zissimos, Ben
作者单位：California State University System; California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo; Southern Methodist University; University of Exeter
摘要：We develop a new theoretical political economy framework called a 'parallel contest' that emphasizes the political fight over trade agreement (TA) ratification within countries. TA ratification is inherently uncertain in each country because anti- and pro-trade interests contest each other to influence their own government's ratification decision. As in the terms-of-trade theory of TAs, the TA removes terms-of-trade externalities created by unilateral tariffs. But, a TA also creates new terms-...
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作者：Peersman, Gert; Rueth, Sebastian K.; Van der Veken, Wouter
作者单位：Ghent University; University of Erfurt; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg
摘要：Using a structural time-varying-parameter Bayesian vector autoregression (TVP-BVAR) framework, this paper documents that oil price increases caused by oil supply disruptions did not affect food commodity prices before the start of the millennium, but had positive spillover effects in more recent periods and particularly in the era around the Great Recession. Likewise, shortfalls in global food commodity supply resulting from bad harvests have positive effects on crude oil prices since the earl...
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作者：Wang, Zi
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：Multinational firms, using their foreign affiliates as export platforms, are the largest players in international trade. The exporting behaviors of these multinationals differ systematically from those of local firms: Using the Chinese customs data, I find that the Chinese affiliates of foreign multinationals bias their exports towards the markets close to their headquarters. I incorporate this headquarters gravity into a general equilibrium model by, as in Head and Mayer (2019), allowing the ...
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作者：Tong, Hui; Wei, Shang-Jin
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：A country may adopt policy measures such as raising its foreign exchange reserves to better prepare for sudden reversal of international capital flows or currency attacks, which in principle should reduce financial vulnerability for its firms and the entire economy, but the beneficial effect of such policies may be partially offset by endogenous firms' decisions to take on more risks. We present a robust but previously undocumented relationship between corporate leverage and country-level fore...
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作者：Kim, Daisoon
作者单位：North Carolina State University
摘要：This paper incorporates sloping marginal cost curves and their variations across industries into an open macro model, motivated by the fact that industries' output, imports, and exports are more procyclical when their economies of scale arise from sloping marginal cost curves rather than fixed costs. The model, consistent with the data, delivers endogenous within-firm interdependence across markets and export gains/losses, which reproduce observed industrial business cycle patterns as well as ...
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作者：Bagwell, Kyle; Lee, Seung Hoon
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University System of Georgia; Georgia Institute of Technology
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作者：Metiu, Norbert
作者单位：Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：This paper investigates the international effects of U.S. trade protection. Using micro-level data on anti-dumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards, I develop a new measure of U.S. trade policy announcement shocks for the period 1988-2015 that is free of confounding factors. Es-timates using the new measure indicate that announced, but not yet imposed, U.S. trade re-strictions give rise to contractions in major trading partners' output and investment. Counterfactual results indicate that...
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作者：Chen, Yongmin; Hua, Xinyu; Maskus, Keith E.
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
摘要：We study the international protection of consumer data in a model where data from product sales generate additional revenue to firms but disutility to consumers. When data usage lacks transparency, a firm suffers a commitment problem and overuses consumer data. Greater transparency enables the firm to commit to less data usage, which boosts consumer demand and leads to a higher price but also higher output if the firm operates only in one country. A multinational firm faces more challenges whe...
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作者：Weidner, Martin; Zylkin, Thomas
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Oxford; University of Richmond
摘要：We study the incidental parameter problem for the three-way Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator recently recommended for identifying the effects of trade policies and in other panel data gravity settings. Despite the number and variety of fixed effects involved, we confirm PPML is consistent for fixed T and we show it is in fact the only estimator among a wide range of PML gravity estimators that is generally consistent in this context when T is fixed. At the same time, asymptot...
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作者：Chor, Davin; Manova, Kalina; Yu, Zhihong
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Nottingham
摘要：Global value chains have fundamentally transformed international trade and development in recent decades. We use matched firm-level customs and manufacturing survey data, together with Input-Output tables for China, to examine how Chinese firms position themselves in global production lines and how this evolves with productivity and performance over the firm lifecycle. We document a sharp rise in the upstreamness of imports, stable positioning of exports, and rapid expansion in production stag...
