Global supply chains in the pandemic

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bonadio, Barthelemy; Huo, Zhen; Levchenko, Andrei A.; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
• 署名单位: University of Lausanne; Yale University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103534
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: production networks; international transmission; pandemic; Covid-19

摘要

We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth using a multi-sector quantitative framework implemented on 64 countries. We discipline the labor supply shock across sectors and countries using the fraction of work in the sector that can be done from home, interacted with the stringency with which countries imposed lockdown measures. One quarter of the total model-implied real GDP decline is due to transmission through global supply chains. However, renationalization of global supply chains does not in general make countries more resilient to pandemic-induced contractions in labor supply. This is because eliminating reliance on foreign inputs increases reliance on the domestic inputs, which are also disrupted due to nationwide lockdowns. In fact, trade can insulate a country imposing a stringent lockdown from the pandemic-shock, as its foreign inputs are less disrupted than its domestic ones. Finally, unilateral lifting of the lockdowns in the largest economies can contribute as much as 2.5% to GDP growth in some of their smaller trade partners. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.