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作者：Asis, Gonzalo; Chari, Anusha; Haas, Adam
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper employs a novel multi-country dataset of corporate defaults to develop a model of distress risk specific to emerging markets. The data suggest that global financial variables such as US interest rates and shifts in global liquidity and risk aversion have significant predictive power for forecasting corporate distress risk in emerging markets. We document a positive distress risk premium in emerging market equities and show that the impact of a global risk-off environment on default ...
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作者：Broner, Fernando; Martin, Alberto; Pandolfi, Lorenzo; Williams, Tomas
作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; University of Naples Federico II; George Washington University
摘要：We study the effects of sovereign debt inflows on domestic firms. To do so, we exploit episodes of large sovereign debt inflows, which follow the announcements of the inclusion of six emerging countries into major sovereign debt indexes. We find that these events reduce government bond yields, appreciate the domestic currency, and have heterogeneous stock-market effects on domestic firms. Firms operating in tradable industries experience lower returns than firms in non-tradable industries. In ...
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作者：Pelzl, Paul; Poelhekke, Steven
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); University of Auckland; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：We analyze the local effect of exogenous shocks to the value of mineral deposits on a panel of manufacturing plants in Indonesia. We introduce heterogeneity in natural resource extraction methods, which helps to explain the mixed evidence found in the 'Dutch disease' literature. In districts where mineral extraction is relatively capital intensive, mining booms cause virtually no upward pressure on manufacturing wages, and both producers of more heavily traded and relatively less-traded manufa...
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作者：Chatruc, Marisol Rodriguez; Stein, Ernesto; Vlaicu, Razvan
作者单位：Inter-American Development Bank; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：This paper examines general support for trade at the individual level, measures its sensitivity to pro-and anti-trade framing, and relates these effects to how framing affects specific beliefs about trade. The data come from a randomized experiment we included in the 2018 Latinobarometro survey covering 18 countries. We find that respondents' high support for trade is based primarily on perceived employment gains. General support for trade is unaf-fected by consumption benefits framing, but is...
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作者：Facchini, Giovanni; Testa, Cecilia
作者单位：University of Nottingham; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Nottingham
摘要：Governments do not always enforce their laws, even when they have the means of doing so, and lax enforcement is common in the domain of immigration policy. To explain this paradox we develop a political agency model where gains from migration are unevenly distributed, and an elected government chooses both quotas and their enforcement. We show that distributional concerns can have perverse effects on migration policy since a utilitarian government may set a quota to appease the electorate, but...
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作者：Gulan, Adam; Haavio, Markus; Kilponen, Juha
作者单位：Bank of Finland
摘要：We study the macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well-identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock significantly affected Finnish output. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all-out crisis, and accounts for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990-1993). We show that shocks originating domestically played a major role throug...
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作者：Gunter, Samara; Riera-Crichton, Daniel; Vegh, Carlos A.; Vuletin, Guillermo
作者单位：Colby College; The World Bank; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We estimate the effect of worldwide tax changes on output following the narrative approach developed for the United States by Romer and Romer (2010). We use a novel dataset on value-added taxes for 51 countries (21 industrial and 30 developing) for the period 1970-2014 to identify 96 tax changes. We then use contemporaneous economic records to classify such changes as endogenous or exogenous to current (or prospective) economic conditions. In line with theoretical distortionary and disincentiv...
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作者：Fraiberger, Samuel P.; Lee, Do; Puy, Damien; Ranciere, Romain
作者单位：The World Bank; New York University; International Monetary Fund; University of Southern California; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We investigate the relationship between media sentiment and international equity prices using a new dataset of 4 million news articles published between 1991 and 2015. Three key results emerge. First, news sentiment robustly predicts future daily returns around the world. However, we find a sharp contrast between the effect of local news and that of global news: whereas local news optimism (pessimism) predicts a small and transitory increase (decrease) in local equity returns, global news sent...
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作者：Ambrocio, Gene; Hasan, Iftekhar
作者单位：Bank of Finland; Fordham University; University of Sydney
摘要：Do stronger political ties with a global superpower improve sovereign borrowing conditions? We use data on voting at the United Nations General Assembly along with foreign aid flows to construct an index of political ties and find evidence that suggests stronger political ties with the US is associated with both better sovereign credit ratings and lower yields on sovereign bonds especially among lower income countries. We use official heads-of-state visits to the White House and coalition forc...
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作者：Horn, Sebastian; Reinhart, Carmen M.; Trebesch, Christoph
作者单位：University of Munich; Harvard University; University of Kiel
摘要：Compared with China's pre-eminent status in world trade, its role in global finance is poorly understood. This paper studies the size, terms and destination of Chinese official international lending on the basis of a new consensus database of 4900 loans and grants to 146 countries, 1949-2017. Using the loan-level lending data we estimate outstanding debt stocks owed to China for more than 100 developing and emerging economies since 2000. As of 2017, China had become the world's largest officia...
