Revenue-versus spending-based fiscal consolidation announcements: Multipliers and follow-up

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Beetsma, Roel; Furtuna, Oana; Giuliodori, Massimo; Mumtaz, Haroon
• 署名单位: University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; European Central Bank; University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of London; Queen Mary University London; University of Amsterdam
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103455
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Fiscal consolidation announcements; follow-up; multipliers; Panel vector auto-regression; Narrative Identification; exports; imports; Exchange rates

摘要

Using a new narrative dataset on fiscal consolidation announcements for thirteen EU countries over the period 1978-2013, a panel VAR analysis shows that revenue-based announcements appear more credible, but affect economic activity more adversely than do spending-based announcements. Higher revenue multipliers and, to a lesser extent, larger actual follow-up following a revenue-based announcement help to explain the difference. The uniqueness of our dataset allows to control for anticipation effects of budgetary implementation and variables that respond quickly to news. The main findings are similar if we include in the specification open-economy variables. (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.