Reprint of: Regional trade policy uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Poilly, Celine; Tripier, Fabien
• 署名单位: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Aix-Marseille Universite; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Universite PSL; Laboratoire dEconomie de Dauphine LEDa; Universite Paris-Dauphine
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104134
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: shocks; CHINA; RISK

摘要

Higher trade policy uncertainty has recessionary effects on U.S. states. To demonstrate this, first build a novel empirical measure of regional trade policy uncertainty based on the volatility of national import tariffs at the sectoral level and on the sectoral composition of imports in states. We find that a state that is more exposed to an unanticipated increase in tariff volatility suffers from a larger drop in real GDP and employment than the average U.S. state. We build a two-region open-economy model and find that the precautionary saving behavior the main driver of the recession, although this effect is reinforced by high exposure to import tariffs. The feedback effect resulting from trade connections with the Foreign country primarily influences the persistence of these dynamics.