Trade networks and firm value: Evidence from the US-China trade war

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Huang, Yi; Lin, Chen; Liu, Sibo; Tang, Heiwai
• 署名单位: Fudan University; University of Hong Kong; Hong Kong Baptist University; University of Hong Kong
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103811
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: firm value; event study; Trade policy; Offshoring; Global value chains

摘要

We study the financial implications of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war for global supply chains. Around the dates when higher tariffs are announced, U.S. firms that depend more on exports to and imports from China experience larger declines in market value, with the negative effect spilling over to the affected firms' suppliers and customers through production networks. The trade war effect is mainly concentrated among U.S. firms that sell to Chinese customers with low R&D intensity or outsource to Chinese differentiated input suppliers. We also exploit the within-firm variation in tariff exposure according to the detailed product lists and conduct a reverse experiment based on the 2019 trade talks. To explain the findings, we propose a theoretical model that highlights how complex trade structures shape shareholder wealth. (c) 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.