The effects of countercyclical interest rates: Evidence from the classical gold standard

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mitchener, Kris James; Pina, Goncalo
• 署名单位: Santa Clara University; heSam Universite; ESCP Business School
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103827
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: Countercyclical interest rates; NOMINAL ANCHORS; stabilization; demand shocks; Commodity lottery; gold standard

摘要

We estimate the impact of countercyclical interest rates on macroeconomic outcomes in open economies. To identify countercyclical interest rates, we construct a new database of short-term interest rates, principal exports, and commodity prices for 40 economies from 1870-1913. Specialization and trade integration subjected economies to a commodity lottery in the form of price fluctuations in world markets. Capital mobility and a currency peg exposed them to interest-rate movements originating in the U.K., the largest economy and linchpin of the classical gold standard. We use these two exogenous shocks to identify positive effects of commodity-export prices on real GDP and the domestic price level and negative effects of exogenous changes in short-term interest rates on the same variables. We show that countercyclical interest rates, defined relative to export-price shocks, stabilized both output and the domestic price level. This stabilization was more effective for the price level than for output.