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作者：Dang, Hai-Anh; Lanjouw, Peter; Luoto, Jill; McKenzie, David
作者单位：The World Bank; RAND Corporation; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Movements in and out of poverty are of core interest to both policymakers and economists. Yet the panel data needed to analyze such movements are rare. In this paper we build on the methodology used to construct poverty maps to show how repeated cross-sections of household survey data can allow inferences to be made about movements in and out of poverty. We illustrate that the method permits the estimation of bounds on mobility, and provide non-parametric and parametric approaches to obtaining...
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作者：Dercon, Stefan; Hill, Ruth Vargas; Clarke, Daniel; Outes-Leon, Ingo; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
作者单位：University of Oxford; CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); The World Bank
摘要：We show theoretically that the presence of basis risk in index insurance makes it a complement to informal risk sharing, implying that index insurance crowds-in risk sharing and leading to a prediction that demand will be higher among groups of individuals that can share risk. We report results from Ethiopia from a first attempt to market weather insurance to informal risk-sharing groups. The groups were offered training on risk management and insurance. We randomized the content of training p...
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作者：Felipe Cespedes, Luis; Velasco, Andres
作者单位：Universidad Adolfo Ibanez; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations-commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity cycle, in contrast to behavior across the output cycle, which has been the main focus of earlier research on fiscal procyclicality. We present evidence of reduced fiscal policy procyclicality in a number of c...
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作者：Chitu, Livia; Eichengreen, Barry; Mehl, Arnaud
作者单位：European Central Bank; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We offer new evidence on the emergence of the dollar as the leadin'g international currency focusing on its role as currency of denomination in global bond markets. We show that the dollar overtook sterling much earlier than commonly supposed, as early as in 1929. Financial development appears to have been the main factor helping the dollar to overcome sterling's head start. The finding that a shift from a unipolar to a multipolar international monetary and financial system has happened before...
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作者：Kung, James Kai-sing; Ma, Chicheng
作者单位：Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; Shandong University
摘要：Can culture mitigate conflicts triggered by economic shocks? In light of the extraordinary emphasis that Confucianism places on subordination and pacifism, we examine its role in possibly attenuating peasant rebellion within the historical context of China (circa 1651-1910). Our analysis finds that, while crop failure triggers peasant rebellion, its effect is significantly smaller in counties characterized by stronger Confucian norms as proxied by Confucian temples and chaste women. This resul...
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作者：Albornoz, Facundo; Hauk, Esther
作者单位：University of Birmingham; Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE)
摘要：We study how foreign interventions affect civil war around the world. In an infinitely repeated game we combine a gambling for resurrection mechanism for the influencing country with the canonical bargaining model of war in the influenced country to micro-found sudden shifts in power among the domestic bargaining partners, which are known to lead to war due to commitment problems. We test two of our model predictions that allow us to identify the influence of foreign intervention on civil war ...
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作者：Valente, Christine y
作者单位：University of Bristol
摘要：I combine fertility histories from the 2006 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey with a census of newly introduced legal abortion centers to estimate the impact of reducing the cost of abortion on pregnancy outcomes, gender, and neonatal health. Contrary to previous studies, I identify the within-mother, behavioral response to improved access to abortion by comparing siblings conceived before and after the opening of an abortion center nearby. Closeness to a legal abortion center decreases the ...
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作者：de Nicola, Francesca; Gine, Xavier
作者单位：CGIAR; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI); The World Bank
摘要：This paper investigates the accuracy of recall data by comparing administrative records with retrospective, self-reported survey responses to income and asset questions for a sample of self-employed households from coastal India. It finds that the magnitude of the recall error increases over time, in part because respondents resort to inference rather than memory. Monthly earnings that are higher than the median are also better recalled. These results have implications for the accuracy of the ...
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作者：Robinson, James A.; Torvik, Ragnar; Verdier, Thierry
作者单位：Harvard University; Norwegian University of Science & Technology (NTNU)
摘要：In this note we show how a considerably simpler model than the one in our original JDE 2006 paper generates all the same results. We also acknowledge an error in the specification of a utility function in our previous paper. (C) 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.
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作者：Jain, Sanjay; Majumdar, Sumon; Mukand, Sharun W.
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Queens University - Canada; University of Warwick; University of Warwick
摘要：This paper develops a dynamic framework to analyze the political sustainability of economic reforms in developing countries. First, we demonstrate that economic reforms that are proceeding successfully may run into a political impasse, with the reform's initial success having a negative impact on its political sustainability. Second, we demonstrate that greater state capacity, to make compensatory transfers to those adversely affected by reform, need not always help the political sustainabilit...
