Was this time different?: Fiscal policy in commodity republics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Felipe Cespedes, Luis; Velasco, Andres
• 署名单位: Universidad Adolfo Ibanez; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3878
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2013.07.012
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 92-106
• 关键词: commodity prices; optimal fiscal policy; Fiscal behavior; institutions

摘要

We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations-commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity cycle, in contrast to behavior across the output cycle, which has been the main focus of earlier research on fiscal procyclicality. We present evidence of reduced fiscal policy procyclicality in a number of countries. Our empirical results suggest that improvements in institutional quality have led to a more countercyclical fiscal policy stance in a number of countries. The presence of fiscal rules also seems to have made a difference: countries that use them displayed a larger shift toward fiscal counter-cyclicality between the two episodes. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.