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作者：Bergholt, Drago; Furlanetto, Francesco; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolo
作者单位：Norges Bank; BI Norwegian Business School; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics; Bocconi University
摘要：We use time series techniques to estimate the importance of four main explanations for the decline of the US labor income share: rising firm markups, falling bargaining power of workers, higher investment-specific technology growth, and more automated production processes. Identification is achieved with restrictions derived from a stylized model of structural change. Our results point to automation as the main driver of the labor share, although rising markups have played an important role in...
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作者：Basso, Henrique S.; Rachedi, Omar
作者单位：Banco de Espana; Universitat Ramon Llull; Escuela Superior de Administracion y Direccion de Empresas (ESADE)
摘要：We document that government spending multipliers depend on the population age structure. Using the variation in military spending and birth rates across US states, we show that the local fiscal multiplier is 1.5 and increases with the population share of young people, implying multipliers of 1.1-1.9 in the -interquartile range. A parsimonious -life cycle -open economy New Keynesian model with credit market imperfections and -age-specific differences in labor supply and demand explains 87 perce...
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作者：Bilbiie, Florin O.; Monacelli, Tommaso; Perotti, Roberto
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bocconi University; Bocconi University
摘要：We build a medium-scale DSGE model and calibrate it to fit the main macroeconomic variables during the US Great Recession. Using it to evaluate the welfare effects of increasing government consumption at the zero lower bound beyond what was actually observed in the data, we reach three main results. First, the increase in government consumption after 2008, albeit small in present value terms, was close to optimal. Second, frontloading the same stimulus would have been welfare-improving. Third,...
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作者：Fan, Jingting
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：I develop a spatial-equilibrium model to quantify the distributional impacts of international trade in an economy with intranational trade and migration costs. Focusing on China, I find that international trade increases both between-region inequality among workers with similar skills and within-region inequality between skilled and unskilled workers, with the former accounting for 75 percent of the overall inequality increase. Ignoring spatial frictions will underestimate trade's impact on th...
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作者：Jedwab, Remi; Vollrath, Dietrich
作者单位：University of Houston System; University of Houston
摘要：Today, the world's fastest-growing cities lie in low-income countries, unlike the historical norm. Also, unlike the killer cities of history, cities in low-income countries grow not just through in-migration but also through their own natural increase. First, we use novel historical data to document that many poor countries urbanized at the same time as the postwar urban mortality transition. Second, we develop a framework incorporating location choice with heterogeneity in demographics and co...
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作者：Saint-Paul, Gilles
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
摘要：An ideologically biased expert faces trade-offs in model design. The perceived model must be autocoherent-its use by all agents delivers a self-confirming equilibrium. Policy may be influenced by manipulating the Keynesian multiplier or the Phillips curve parameters. Ideological bias may arise in a way that resembles well-known historical controversies. A larger reported Keynesian multiplier is favored by more left-wing economists, as is a flatter inflation output trade-off. Some combinations ...
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作者：Chen, Kaiji; Wen, Yi
作者单位：Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Tsinghua University
摘要：China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China's housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce curr...
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作者：Clementi, Gian Luca; Palazzo, Berardino
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Boston University
摘要：Firm entry and exit amplify and propagate the effects of aggregate shocks, leading to greater persistence and unconditional variation of aggregate quantities. Following a positive aggregate shock, entry rises. As in the data, entrants are small and their initial impact on aggregate dynamics is negligible. However, as the common productivity component reverts to its unconditional mean, the youngsters that survive grow larger, generating a wider and longer expansion than in a scenario without en...
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作者：Alder, Simeon D.
作者单位：University of Notre Dame
摘要：I explore mismatch between firms and their managers as a source of variation in aggregate output and total factor productivity (TFP). The model is calibrated to match observations on the size distribution of US manufacturing firms, managerial compensation, and aggregate moments in the national accounts. Quantitatively, small deviations from assortative matching can have sizeable effects on output and TFP. Cronyism, where managerial positions are allocated by status rather than talent, imposes ...
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作者：Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe
作者单位：University of Bologna; University of Munich
摘要：This paper develops a quantifiable unified growth theory to investigate cross-country comparative development. The calibrated model can replicate the historical development dynamics in forerunner countries like Sweden and the patterns in cross-country panel data. The findings suggest a crucial role of the timing of the onset of the economic and demographic transition for explaining differences in development. Country-specific differences in extrinsic mortality are a candidate explanation for d...
