The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe
• 署名单位: University of Bologna; University of Munich
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20130170
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 189-225
• 关键词: life expectancy; educational-attainment; fertility decline; child-mortality; GROWTH; TRENDS; MODEL; determinants; population; HEALTH

摘要

This paper develops a quantifiable unified growth theory to investigate cross-country comparative development. The calibrated model can replicate the historical development dynamics in forerunner countries like Sweden and the patterns in cross-country panel data. The findings suggest a crucial role of the timing of the onset of the economic and demographic transition for explaining differences in development. Country-specific differences in extrinsic mortality are a candidate explanation for differences in the timing of the take-off across countries and the resulting worldwide comparative development patterns, including the bimodal distribution of the endogenous variables across countries. (JEL I12, J11, J13, N33, N34, O41, O47)