The Possibility of Ideological Bias in Structural Macroeconomic Models

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Saint-Paul, Gilles
• 署名单位: Paris School of Economics; New York University; New York University Abu Dhabi
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20140154
• 发表日期: 2018
• 页码: 216-241
• 关键词: self-confirming equilibrium; social-mobility; monetary-policy; lucas critique; expectations; inflation; shocks; redistribution; STABILITY; science

摘要

An ideologically biased expert faces trade-offs in model design. The perceived model must be autocoherent-its use by all agents delivers a self-confirming equilibrium. Policy may be influenced by manipulating the Keynesian multiplier or the Phillips curve parameters. Ideological bias may arise in a way that resembles well-known historical controversies. A larger reported Keynesian multiplier is favored by more left-wing economists, as is a flatter inflation output trade-off. Some combinations of parameters must be truthfully revealed, illustrating the tight link between parameter identification and the scope for bias that is implied by the autocoherence conditions.