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作者：Carroll, Christopher D.; Crawley, Edmund; Slacalek, Jiri; Tokuoka, Kiichi; White, Matthew N.
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; European Central Bank; International Monetary Fund; University of Delaware
摘要：To match aggregate consumption dynamics, macroeconomic models must generate excess smoothness in consumption expenditures. But microfounded models are calibrated to match micro data, which exhibit no excess smoothness. So standard microfounded models fail to match the macro smoothness facts. We show that the micro and macro evidence are both consistent with a microfounded model where consumers know their personal circumstances but have sticky expectations about the macroeconomy. Aggregate cons...
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作者：Trew, Alex
作者单位：University of Glasgow
摘要：This paper develops a model in which the evolution of the transport sector occurs alongside the growth in trade and output of agricultural and manufacturing firms. Simulation output captures aspects of the historical record of England and Wales over 1710-1881. A number of counterfactuals demonstrate the role that the timing and spatial distribution of infrastructure development play in determining the timing of takeoff. There can be a role for policy in accelerating takeoff through improving i...
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作者：Ikeda, Daisuke; Kurozumi, Takushi
作者单位：Bank of Japan
摘要：Post-financial crisis recoveries tend to be slow and accompanied by slowdowns in total factor productivity (TFP) and permanent losses in GDP. To prevent them, how should monetary policy be conducted? We address this issue by developing a model with endogenous TFP growth in which an adverse financial shock can induce a slow recovery. In the model, a welfare-maximizing monetary policy rule features a strong response to output, and the welfare gain from output stabilization is much larger than wh...
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作者：Ongena, Steven; Popov, Alexander; Van Horen, Neeltje
作者单位：University of Zurich; KU Leuven; European Central Bank; Bank of England
摘要：Using proprietary data on banks' monthly securities holdings, we show that during the European sovereign debt crisis, domestic banks in fiscally stressed countries were considerably more likely than foreign banks to increase their holdings of domestic sovereign bonds during months when the government needed to roll over a relatively large amount of maturing debt. This result cannot be explained by risk shifting, carry trading, or regulatory compliance. Domestic banks that received government s...
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作者：Caicedo, Santiago; Lucas, Robert E., Jr.; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban
作者单位：University of Chicago; Princeton University
摘要：We develop a theory of career paths and earnings where agents organize in production hierarchies. Agents climb these hierarchies as they learn stochastically from others. Earnings grow as agents acquire knowledge and occupy positions with more subordinates. We contrast these and other implications with US census data for the period 1990 to 2010, matching the Lorenz curve of earnings and the observed mean experience-earnings profiles. We show the increase in wage inequality over this period can...
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作者：Poschke, Markus
作者单位：McGill University; Universite de Montreal; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Development is associated with systematic changes in the firm size distribution. I document that the mean and dispersion of firm size are larger in rich countries, and increased over time for US firms. To analyze the firm size-development link, I construct a frictionless general equilibrium model of occupational choice with skill-biased change in entrepreneurial technology (i.e., technical progress favors better entrepreneurs). The model accounts for key aspects of the US experience with only ...
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作者：Cavallo, Alberto; Cruces, Guillermo; Perez-Truglia, Ricardo
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National University of La Plata; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
摘要：Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in low inflation contexts have significantly weaker priors about the inflation rate. This finding suggests that rational inattention may be an important source of information frictions. Second, cognitive limitations also appear to be a...
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作者：Greenwood, Jeremy; Guner, Nezih; Kocharkov, Georgi; Santos, Cezar
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Autonomous University of Barcelona; ICREA; Autonomous University of Barcelona; University of Konstanz
摘要：Marriage has declined since 1960, with the drop being more significant for noncollege-educated individuals versus college-educated ones. Divorce has increased, more so for the noncollege-educated. Additionally, positive assortative mating has risen. Income inequality among households has also widened. A unified model of marriage, divorce, educational attainment, and married female labor-force participation is developed and estimated to fit the postwar US data. Two underlying driving forces are...
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作者：Kopecky, Karen A.; Koreshkova, Tatyana
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Concordia University - Canada; Universite de Montreal; Concordia University - Canada
摘要：We consider a life-cycle model with idiosyncratic risk in earnings, out-of-pocket medical and nursing home expenses, and survival. Partial insurance is available through welfare, Medicaid, and social security. Calibrating the model to the United States we show that savings for old-age, out-of-pocket expenses account for 13.5 percent of aggregate wealth, half of which is due to nursing home expenses; cross-sectional out-of-pocket nursing home risk accounts for 3 percent of aggregate wealth and ...
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作者：Charnavoki, Valery; Dolado, Juan J.
作者单位：New Economic School; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; European University Institute
摘要：We propose a structural dynamic factor model of a small commodity-exporting economy, using Canada as a representative case study. Combining large panel datasets of the global and domestic economies, sign restrictions are used to identify relevant demand and supply shocks that explain volatility in real commodity prices. We quantify their dynamic effects on a wide variety of Canadian macro variables. We are able to reproduce all the main stylized features at business-cycle frequencies documente...
