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作者：Miranda-Pinto, Jorge; Youngs, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Queensland; University of Virginia; Zhejiang University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：We show that during the Great Recession, more-flexible sectors paid lower sectoral bond spreads. We rationalize this fact with a model with input-output linkages, heterogeneous elasticities, and binding working capital constraints in the use of intermediates. We show that the difference in flexibility between upstream and downstream sectors is key for determining the role of input-output linkages in amplifying or mitigating distortions. Calibrating the model to the US economy, we find that our...
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作者：Zheng, Angela; Graham, James
作者单位：McMaster University; University of Sydney
摘要：Public school funding depends heavily on local property tax reve-nue. Consequently, low-income households have limited access to quality education in neighborhoods with high house prices. In a dynamic life-cycle model with neighborhood choice and endogenous local school quality, we show that this property tax funding mecha-nism reduces intergenerational mobility and accounts for the spatial correlation between house prices and mobility. A housing voucher experiment improves access to schools, ...
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作者：Jungherr, Joachim; Schott, Immo
作者单位：University of Bonn; Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：Business credit lags GDP growth by about one year. This contributes to high leverage during recessions and slow deleveraging. We show that a model in which firms use risky long-term debt replicates this slow adjustment of firm debt. In the model, slow-moving debt has important effects for real activity. High levels of firm debt issued during expansions are only gradually reduced during recessions. This generates an adverse feedback loop between high default rates and low investment and thereby...
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作者：Benhabib, Jess; Szoke, Balint
作者单位：New York University
摘要：We generalize recent results of Bassetto and Benhabib (2006) and Straub and Werning (2019) in a neoclassical model with endogenous labor-leisure choice where all agents are allowed to save and accumulate capital. We provide a sufficient condition under which optimal redistributive capital taxes remain at their allowed upper bound forever, even if the resulting equilibrium trajectory converges to a unique steady state with positive and finite consumption, capital, and labor. We then provide an ...
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作者：Valchev, Rosen
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：This paper proposes a new explanation for the failure of Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) that rationalizes both the classic UIP puzzle and the evidence that the puzzle reverses direction at longer horizons. In the model, excess currency returns arise as compensation for endogenous fluctuations in bond convenience yield differentials. Due to the interaction of monetary and fiscal policy, the impulse response of the equilibrium convenience yield is nonmonotonic, which generates the reversal of t...
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作者：Giacomini, Raffaella; Skreta, Vasiliki; Turen, Javier
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：We formulate a theory of expectations updating that fits the dynamics of accuracy and disagreement in a new survey of professional forecasters. We document new stylized facts, including the puzzling persistence of disagreement as uncertainty resolves. Our theory explains these facts by allowing for different channels of heterogeneity. Agents produce an initial forecast based on heterogeneous priors and are heterogeneously inattentive. Updaters use Bayes' rule and interpret public information u...
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作者：Faberman, R. Jason; Kudlyak, Marianna
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We use online job application data to study the relationship between search intensity and search duration. The data allow us to control for job seeker composition and the evolution of available job openings over the duration of search. We find that, within an individual search spell, search intensity declines continuously. We also find that longer-duration job seekers search more intensely throughout their search. They tend to be older, male, nonemployed, and live in areas with weaker labor ma...
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作者：Ikeda, Daisuke; Phan, Toan
作者单位：Bank of Japan; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We analyze the relationships between bubbles, capital flows, and economic activities in a rational bubble model with two large open economies. We establish a reinforcing relationship between global imbalances and bubbles. Capital flows from South to North facilitate the emergence and the size of bubbles in the North. Bubbles in the north in turn facilitate South-to-North capital flows. The model can simultaneously explain several stylized features of recent bubble episodes.
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作者：Cao, Dan; Nie, Guangyu
作者单位：Georgetown University; Shanghai University of Finance & Economics
摘要：The seminal contribution by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) has spurred a vast literature on the importance of collateral constraints in propagating and amplifying shocks to the economy. However, most papers in the literature using collateral constraints assume non-state-contingent debt, i.e., markets are incomplete. To assess the relative importance of collateral constraints versus market incompleteness, we study a calibrated incomplete markets model and solve it with and without collateral constra...
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作者：Phelan, Gregory
作者单位：Williams College
摘要：This paper investigates how financial sector leverage affects macroeconomic instability and welfare. In the model, banks borrow ( use leverage) to allocate resources to productive projects and provide liquidity. When banks do not actively issue new equity, aggregate outcomes depend on the level of equity in the financial sector. Equilibrium is inefficient because agents do not internalize how their decisions affect volatility, aggregate leverage, and the returns on assets. Leverage creates sys...
