The Decline of the Labor Share: New Empirical Evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bergholt, Drago; Furlanetto, Francesco; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolo
• 署名单位: Norges Bank; BI Norwegian Business School; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics; Bocconi University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190365
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 163-198
• 关键词: structural vector autoregressions; global decline; rise; TECHNOLOGY; GROWTH; identification; restrictions; EMPLOYMENT; POWER; fall

摘要

We use time series techniques to estimate the importance of four main explanations for the decline of the US labor income share: rising firm markups, falling bargaining power of workers, higher investment-specific technology growth, and more automated production processes. Identification is achieved with restrictions derived from a stylized model of structural change. Our results point to automation as the main driver of the labor share, although rising markups have played an important role in the last 20 years. We also find evidence of capital-labor complementarity, suggesting that capital deepening may have raised the labor share.