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作者：Brunnermeier, Markus K.; Sannikov, Yuliy
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：This paper develops a dynamic two-country neoclassical stochastic growth model with incomplete markets. Short-term credit flows can be excessive and reverse suddenly. The equilibrium outcome is constrained inefficient due to pecuniary externalities. First, an undercapitalized country borrows too much since each firm does not internalize that an increase in production capacity undermines their output price, worsening their terms of trade. From an ex ante perspective each firm undermines the nat...
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作者：Melosi, Leonardo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
摘要：We conduct likelihood evaluation of a DSGE model in which firms have imperfect common knowledge. Imperfect common knowledge is found to be more successful than price stickiness a la Calvo to account for the highly persistent effects of nominal shocks on output and inflation. Our likelihood analysis suggests that firms pay little attention to aggregate nominal conditions. This paper shows that such allocation of attention is plausible because it is optimal for firms with a reasonably small size...
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作者：Gnocchi, Stefano
作者单位：Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We study a noncooperative policy game between monetary and fiscal policy, where only monetary policy can commit to future actions. The equilibrium outcome of the game depends on the strategies available to the monetary policymaker. If strategies are left unrestricted, the central bank can alter the incentives of the fiscal authority in a way that replicates the full commitment solution. If the central bank cannot commit to respond to fiscal policy, the fiscal authority generates fluctuations i...
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作者：Parro, Fernando
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Technological change has reduced the relative price of capital goods. Reductions in trade costs make it cheaper to import capital goods. With capital-skill complementarity, both can increase the skill premium. I construct a general-equilibrium trade model with capital-skill complementarity to study the impact of changing worldwide trade costs and technologies on the skill premium. The impacts of trade costs and technical change are comparable, especially in developing countries, and much large...
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作者：Kapicka, Marek
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
摘要：I construct measures of technology capital and country openness for the US economy and the rest of the world for 1982-2007. The key identifying assumption is that firms equalize returns on tangible and technology capital. For the US economy, technology capital is about one-third of tangible capital, and the degree of openness is between 0.61 and 0.70. I provide both a two-country estimation and a multicountry estimation, and find that the US estimates are almost identical in both cases. The we...
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作者：Coenen, Guenter; Erceg, Christopher J.; Freedman, Charles; Furceri, Davide; Kumhof, Michael; Lalonde, Rene; Laxton, Douglas; Linde, Jesper; Mourougane, Annabelle; Muir, Dirk; Mursula, Susanna; de Resende, Carlos; Roberts, John; Roeger, Werner; Snudden, Stephen; Trabandt, Mathias; Veld, Jan In't
作者单位：European Central Bank; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Carleton University; University of Palermo; International Monetary Fund; Bank of Canada; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD)
摘要：The paper subjects seven structural DSGE models, all used heavily by policymaking institutions, to discretionary fiscal stimulus shocks using seven different fiscal instruments, and compares the results to those of two prominent academic DSGE models. There is considerable agreement across models on both the absolute and relative sizes of different types of fiscal multipliers. The size of many multipliers is large, particularly for spending and targeted transfers. Fiscal policy is most effectiv...
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作者：Dunn, Abe; Gholizadeh, Mahsa
摘要：We estimate across-county spending flows between firms and consumers for every county in the United States, providing a new consumption link that has not been studied previously. We highlight the importance of this link by estimating the effect of changes in local housing wealth on consumption and employment from 2001 to 2019. We generally find that the effect from changes in housing wealth crosses borders to affect consumption and employment in a pattern consistent with our spending flows. Ho...
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作者：Phillot, Maxime
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：We identify Treasury supply shocks using auction data, interpreting changes in futures prices around announcements as shocks to expected supply. We isolate the component of futures price variations pertaining to US Treasury announcements between 1998 and 2020. We study how supply affects financial markets through local projections, using shocks as instruments. We show that increases in Treasury supply cause an upward shift of the yield curve fueled partly by a higher term premium. Stock prices...
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作者：Fujita, Shigeru; Moscarini, Giuseppe; Postel-Vinay, Fabien
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; Yale University; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; University College London; University of London; University College London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We revisit measurement of employer-to-employer (EE) transitions in the monthly Current Population Survey. The incidence of missing answers to the question on change of employer sharply increases starting with the introduction of a new software instrument to con-duct interviews in January 2007 and of the Respondent Identification Policy in 2008-2009. We document nonrandom nonresponse selec-tion by observable and unobservable worker characteristics that correlate with EE mobility. We propose a s...
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作者：Renkin, Tobias; Zullig, Gabriel
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB)
摘要：We study the response of firms' output prices to a cut in credit supply. We combine data on loans between Danish firms and banks with survey -based producer prices and transaction -based export unit values. Exploiting banks' heterogeneous exposure to the global financial crisis, we show that loans to firms with relationships to exposed banks drop and lending rates increase. In response, firms raise prices by 3-5 percent. This effect is decreasing in the elasticity of firms' demand but positive...
