The Great Housing Boom of China

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chen, Kaiji; Wen, Yi
• 署名单位: Emory University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Tsinghua University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20140234
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 73-114
• 关键词: financial frictions; endogenous growth; Asset bubbles; POLICY; misallocation; PRODUCTIVITY

摘要

China's housing prices have been growing nearly twice as fast as national income over the past decade, despite a high vacancy rate and a high rate of return to capital. This paper interprets China's housing boom as a rational bubble emerging naturally from its economic transition. The bubble arises because high capital returns driven by resource reallocation are not sustainable in the long run. Rational expectations of a strong future demand for alternative stores of value can thus induce currently productive agents to speculate in the housing market. Our model can quantitatively account for China's paradoxical housing boom.