Population, Productivity, and Sustainable Consumption

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pindyck, Robert s.
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220278
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 218-238
• 关键词: Intergenerational equity; GROWTH; welfare; CONSEQUENCES; size; WAR

摘要

How does sustainable consumption depend on productivity growth, the size and growth rate of the population, and uncertainty over these growth rates? I address these questions using a model in which productivity and population growth are stochastic and human lives can have ( positive or negative) intrinsic social value. I show how sustainable consumption depends on expected rates of productivity and population growth, the volatility of those rates, and the dependence of welfare on population. For plausible parameter values, sustainable consumption is well below the optimal welfare-maximizing level. This raises a question: given its cost, should sustainability be a social objective?