Optimal Forward Guidance

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bilbiie, Florin O.
• 署名单位: University of Lausanne
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170335
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 310-345
• 关键词: optimal monetary-policy; interest-rates; fiscal-policy; COMMITMENT; inflation; cycles; output

摘要

Optimal forward guidance is the simple policy of keeping interest rates low for some optimally determined number of periods after the liquidity trap ends and moving to normal-times optimal policy thereafter. I solve for the optimal duration in closed form in a new Keynesian model and show that it is close to fully optimal Ramsey policy. The simple rule announce a duration of half of the trap's duration times the disruption is a good approximation, including in a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. By anchoring expectations of Delphic agents (who mistake commitment for bad news), the simple rule is also often welfare-preferable to Odyssean commitment.