Short-Term Planning, Monetary Policy, and Macroeconomic Persistencet

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gust, Christopher; Herbst, Edward; Lopez-Salido, David
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200058
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 174-209
• 关键词: expectations; guidance; models; shocks

摘要

We estimate a behavioral New Keynesian (NK) model in which households and firms plan over a finite horizon. The finite-horizon planning (FHP) model outperforms rational expectations versions of the NK model as well as other behavioral NK models. In the FHP model, households and firms are forward-looking in thinking about events over their planning horizon but are backward-looking regarding events beyond that point. This gives rise to substantial aggregate persistence without resorting to additional features such as habit persistence and price contracts indexed to lagged infla-tion. (JELE12, E23, E31, E32, E52)