Innovation-Led Transitions in Energy Supply

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lemoine, Derek
• 署名单位: University of Arizona
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20200369
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 29-65
• 关键词: social cost; balanced growth; climate policy; substitution; emissions; IMPACT; environment; capture; HISTORY; taxes

摘要

Generalizing models of directed technical change, I show that complementarities between innovations and factors of production (here, energy resources) can drive transitions away from a dominant sector. In a calibrated numerical implementation, the economy gradually transitions energy supply from coal to gas and then to renewable energy, even in the absence of policy. The welfare -maximizing tax on carbon emissions is J -shaped, immediately redirects most research to renewables, and rapidly transitions energy supply directly to renewables. The emission tax is twice as valuable as either the welfare -maximizing research subsidy or the welfare -maximizing mandate to use renewable resources. (JEL H23, O31, O33, Q35, Q41, Q54)