Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Nakamura, Emi; Steinsson, Jon; Liu, Miao
• 署名单位: Columbia University; Columbia University; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20150074
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 113-144
• 关键词: consumer price-index; ideal demand system; income inequality; CPI bias; quality growth; INDIA; GOODS; food; LAW

摘要

China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We use systematic discrepancies between cross-sectional and time-series Engel curves to construct alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000s, but our estimates indicate that true inflation was still higher and consumption growth was overstated. In contrast, inflation was overstated and growth understated during the low-inflation 1990s. These patterns hold for the food Engel curve, and for numerous other categories, such as grain as a fraction of food.