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作者：Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Mehrotra, Neil R.; Robbins, Jacob A.
作者单位：Brown University
摘要：This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescriptions are fundamentally different from those in the standard New Keynesian framework. Using a 56-period quantitative life cycle model, a standard calibration to US data delivers a natural rate ranging from - 1.5 percent to - 2 percent, implying an elevated ...
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作者：Carlstrom, Charles T.; Fuerst, Timothy S.; Paustian, Matthias
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University of Notre Dame
摘要：This paper develops a model of segmented financial markets in which the net worth of financial institutions limits the degree of arbitrage across the term structure. The model is embedded into the canonical Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) framework. We estimate the model using data on the term premium. Our principal results include the following. First, the estimated segmentation coefficient implies a nontrivial effect of central bank asset purchases on yields and real activity. Second, there are ...
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作者：Leukhina, Oksana M.; Turnovsky, Stephen J.
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：The English structural transformation from farming to manufacturing was accompanied by rapid technological change, expansion of trade, and massive population growth. While the roles of technology and trade in this process have been investigated, the literature has largely ignored the role of population growth. We examine population size effects on various aspects of structural development, characterizing their explicit dependence on preference-side and production-side characteristics of the ec...
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作者：Monnet, Eric
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：Central banking in France from 1948 to 1973 was a paradigmatic example of a policy that relied on quantities rather than interest rates. Standard SVAR analyses support the common view that monetary policy was ineffective during this period. However, this approach fails to identify the stance of monetary policy since it does not account for the specificity of quantitative controls on money and credit. An alternative identification strategy based on a narrative approach suggests that monetary po...
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作者：Acharya, Viral V.; Gromb, Denis; Yorulmazer, Tanju
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; INSEAD Business School; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：We study interbank lending and asset sales markets in which banks with surplus liquidity have market power vis-a-vis banks needing liquidity, frictions arise in lending due to moral hazard, and assets are bank-specific. Surplus banks ration lending and instead purchase assets from needy banks, an inefficiency more acute during financial crises. A central bank acting as a lender-of-last-resort can ameliorate this inefficiency provided it is prepared to extend potentially loss-making loans or is...
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作者：Kashyap, Anil K.; Stein, Jeremy C.
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
摘要：In a world with interest on reserves, the central bank has two distinct tools that it can use to raise the short-term policy rate: it can either increase the interest it pays on reserve balances, or it can reduce the quantity of reserves in the system. We argue that by using both of these tools together, and by broadening the scope of reserve requirements, the central bank can simultaneously pursue two objectives: it can manage the inflation-output tradeoff using a Taylor-type rule, and it can...
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作者：De Fiore, Fiorella; Teles, Pedro; Tristani, Oreste
作者单位：European Central Bank; Banco de Portugal
摘要：How should monetary policy respond to changes in financial conditions? We consider a simple model where firms are subject to shocks which may force them to default on their debt. Firms' assets and liabilities are nominal and predetermined. Monetary policy can therefore affect the real value of funds used to finance production. In this model, allowing for inflation volatility in response to aggregate shocks can be optimal; the optimal response to adverse financial shocks is to lower interest ra...
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作者：Bils, Mark; Chang, Yongsung; Kim, Sun-Bin
作者单位：University of Rochester; Yonsei University
摘要：We model worker heterogeneity in the rents from being employed in a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model of matching and unemployment. We show that heterogeneity, reflecting differences in match quality and worker assets, reduces the extent of fluctuations in separations and unemployment. We find that the model faces a trade-off it cannot produce both realistic dispersion in wage growth across workers and realistic cyclical fluctuations in unemployment. (JEL D31, E24, E32, J41, J63)
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作者：Liang, Ming-Yih
作者单位：National Taiwan University
摘要：We examine two behavioral traits essential to Confucianism, and put forward hypotheses as to whether these behavioral traits impede or are conducive to leading or follower mode growth. A dynamic leader-follower general equilibrium model with appropriately specified Confucian parameters is shown to generate results that correspond to some of the main features of East Asian economies: their miracle growths, subsequent slowdowns, trade surpluses, and persistent accumulations of foreign exchange r...
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作者：Di Pace, Federico; Juvenal, Luciana; Petrella, Ivan
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Warwick; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Terms of trade are an inaccurate empirical proxy for how fluctuations in international prices affect the economy. To capture the relevance of terms-of-trade fluctuations for the domestic business cycle, the role of export and import prices needs to be analyzed separately. Using a sample of developing economies, we find that the economy's response to a positive export price shock does not mirror the response to a negative import price shock. (JEL E23, E32, E43, F14, F44, O11)
