Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cavallo, Alberto; Cruces, Guillermo; Perez-Truglia, Ricardo
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National University of La Plata; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20150147
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 1-35
• 关键词: Macroeconomic expectations; public information; phillips-curve; JUDGMENT; rates

摘要

Information frictions play a central role in the formation of household inflation expectations, but there is no consensus about their origins. We address this question with novel evidence from survey experiments. We document two main findings. First, individuals in low inflation contexts have significantly weaker priors about the inflation rate. This finding suggests that rational inattention may be an important source of information frictions. Second, cognitive limitations also appear to be a source of information frictions: even when information about inflation statistics is available, individuals still place a significant weight on inaccurate sources of information, such as their memories of the price changes of the supermarket products they purchase. We discuss the implications of these findings for macroeconomic models and policymaking.