-
作者：Feve, Patrick; Matheron, Julien; Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a DSGE context. We stress a source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of endogenous government expenditures and Edgeworth complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures. Due to cross-equation restrictions, omitting the endogenous component of government policy at the estimation stage would lead an econometrician to underestimate the degree of Edgeworth compl...
-
作者：Ziebarth, Nicolas L.
作者单位：University of Iowa
摘要：I examine the causal effect of bank failures during the Great Depression using the quasi-experimental setup of Richardson and Troost (2009). The experiment is based on Mississippi being divided into two Federal Reserve districts, which followed different policies for liquidity provision. This translated into variation in bank failures across the state. Employing a plant-level sample from the Census of Manufactures, I find that banking failures had a negative effect on revenue stemming from a f...
-
作者：Sevcik, Pavel
作者单位：University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal
摘要：This paper studies the joint dynamics of investor protection and economic development in a political economy model with capital accumulation and occupational choice. Less investor protection implies higher costs of external financing for entrepreneurs. This excludes poorer agents from entrepreneurship, increasing the profits of the remaining entrepreneurs. The main determinants of investor protection policy preferences are the agent's net worth and the expected return from entrepreneurship. Wh...
-
作者：Coibion, Olivier
作者单位：William & Mary; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper studies the small estimated effects of monetary policy shocks from standard VARs versus the large effects from the Romer and Romer (2004) approach. The differences are driven by three factors: the different contractionary impetus, the period of reserves targeting, and lag length selection. Accounting for these factors, the real effects of policy shocks are consistent across approaches and most likely medium. Alternative monetary policy shock measures from estimated Taylor rules also...
-
作者：Wen, Yi
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Tsinghua University
摘要：This paper develops an analytically tractable general equilibrium model of inventory dynamics based on a precautionary stockout-avoidance motive. The model's predictions are broadly consistent with the US business cycle and key features of inventory behavior. It is also shown that technological improvement of inventory management can increase, rather than decrease, the volatility of aggregate output. Key to this seemingly counterintuitive result is that a stockout-avoidance motive leads to a p...
-
作者：Fang, Lei; Rogerson, Richard
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Princeton University; Princeton University
摘要：Recent empirical work finds a negative correlation between product market regulation and aggregate employment. We examine the effect of product market regulations on hours worked in a benchmark model of time allocation. Product market regulations affect market work in effectively the same fashion as labor or consumption taxes. For product market regulations to affect aggregate market work, the key driving force is the size of income transfers associated with the regulations, and the key propag...
-
作者：Hunt, Jennifer; Gauthier-Loiselle, Marjolaine
作者单位：McGill University; Princeton University
摘要：We measure the extent to which skilled immigrants increase innovation in the United States. The 2003 National Survey of College Graduates shows that immigrants patent at double the native rate, due to their disproportionately holding science and engineering degrees. Using a 1940-2000 state panel, we show that a 1 percentage point increase in immigrant college graduates' population share increases patents per capita by 9-18 percent. Our instrument for the change in the skilled immigrant share i...
-
作者：Roldan, Francisco
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：I examine the role of households' precautionary savings motive in amplifying and propagating movements in sovereign spreads. I study this mechanism in a model where the government of a small open economy borrows from foreigners, but the debt is then partially held by heterogeneous domestic savers. In a calibration to Spain in the 2000s, I find that default risk accounts for about half of the output contraction. More generally, sovereign risk exacerbates volatility in consumption over time and ...
-
作者：Jappelli, Tullio; Pistaferri, Luigi
作者单位：University of Naples Federico II; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We test the key implication of the buffer-stock model, namely that any revision in permanent income leads to a proportionate revision in target wealth. We use panel data on the amount of wealth that people think they must hold for precautionary purposes. Using the covariance restrictions that the model imposes on the joint behavior of income and target wealth, we find that households indeed revise, approximately one for one, their target wealth in response to permanent income shocks. The speed...
-
作者：Guo, Xing
作者单位：Bank of Canada
摘要：I study the transmission of financial shocks using an estimated het-erogeneous firm model. Following a contractionary financial shock,financially constrained firms cut investment, but unconstrained firms increase investment due to the lower capital price and interest rate. After matching the empirical dynamics of prices and the price elasticity of investment, I find a limited role of the unconstrained firms' response in dampening the aggregate investment decline. Nonfinancial capital adjustmen...
