Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Carroll, Christopher D.; Crawley, Edmund; Slacalek, Jiri; Tokuoka, Kiichi; White, Matthew N.
• 署名单位: Johns Hopkins University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; European Central Bank; International Monetary Fund; University of Delaware
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180286
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 40-76
• 关键词: anticipated income changes; rational inattention; excess sensitivity; habit formation; business-cycle; INFORMATION; POLICY; management; households; prices

摘要

To match aggregate consumption dynamics, macroeconomic models must generate excess smoothness in consumption expenditures. But microfounded models are calibrated to match micro data, which exhibit no excess smoothness. So standard microfounded models fail to match the macro smoothness facts. We show that the micro and macro evidence are both consistent with a microfounded model where consumers know their personal circumstances but have sticky expectations about the macroeconomy. Aggregate consumption sluggishness reflects consumers' imperfect attention to aggregate shocks. Our proposed degree of inattention has negligible utility costs because aggregate shocks constitute a tiny proportion of the uncertainty that consumers face.